by Summary:
I see conditions ahead that will determine how the economy will be.
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
I see conditions ahead that will determine how the economy will be.
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
Lars Pålsson Syll writes Andreas Cervenka och den svenska bostadsbubblan
Mike Norman writes Trade deficit
Merijn T. Knibbe writes Christmas thoughts about counting the dead in zones of armed conflict.
Lars Pålsson Syll writes Debunking the balanced budget superstition
| I see conditions ahead that will determine how the economy will be. |
The sell off on the tlt came after ism manufacturing prices up about 7 points from expectations. They are expecting inflation which to me is nonsense absent another big supply shock. I keep selling put on tlt.
The "They" are the hedgies, and hedgies are amateurs.
I have been buying your puts – thanks!
@@timkrouse345 I'm Long Bonds?
@@trent3727 no, they are professionals, I am the amature and for now they are winning. My time horizon to build a position is two years. I sold puts 93 June 25, 91 August 25 and 89 October 25 (3 contracts each). I have an initial small position (6 contracts) with average price of 93 in which I sell covered calls while i collect a dividend. Time will tell. Once completed, this would still be a small position in my portfolio and I still have significant dry powder to nibble along. It is a way diversify and edge against a slowdown/recession. I also like to buy stuff when everyone hates them. These professionals are very good at building a narrative that gets amplified by the media until everyone believes in it. Also, wait for the fed to start buying the long end of curve and these hedges need to cover There might be some bear soup served down the roads.
Mike – do you recommend buying the front end or back end of bonds? or both?
good one, Mike.
Thanks for the updates, Mike. Will be good to get the election behind us.
My concern on tariffs would be if foreign imports raise their prices to pass cost on to consumers that domestic producers may also raise. Not as much as the tariffs but just below. I.E. foreign auto makers and domestic sell at $30k each. Americans buy the foreign because it’s the better product. To pass on tariffs to consumers foreign now charges $34k and domestic raises to 32k just because they have a pricing advantage. Now consumers are forced between paying more for either an inferior product or even more for the one they prefer. Tariffs are simply a tax some they remove money from the economy but it would not increase goods and services while costs would go up even if it’s a one time event.
Oil is down because of a slowdown in manufacturing. Bonds should be up, but bonds aren't up only because hedge funds are pouring money into short bonds. Hedgies aren't smart; they all move together because they are not critical thinkers.
Effects of tariffs are not one off.
@@muntedme203@muntedme203 Point one: oil down, Bonds up. It's simple. I'm pro tariffs, as the West was built on tariffs.
Long Bonds the ultimite contrarian trade.
From Australia, I love to see the US flag back💪
TLT is going 👇Gold is going 👆Believe it or not, the debt is real.
Ok, so accounting is real? What do you mean? So what?
Great video Mike. Nice background, thank you.
I Appreciate the daily updates, Mike. Have a great weekend!
Trumph needs to win to save USA can you also mention on your video current lead in election and will you be live on nov 5th evening during the results? I think Kamala is in the lead?
You speak the truth. Talks about the whys and what’s.
Are investors dumping bonds to buy into stocks? Is that why bonds are lacklustre?
I worked on some podcasts and youtube channels in my spare time here in florida, im actually just a cook with an econ degree but i have been following economics and markets almost my whole life. Anyways, you need a better mic lol i can set you up for free if you like. Your analysis is kinda great in a world mired in bad information. would like to add some production value if your even interested. Thanks for all the great wisdom man.
And when the NHC gets it wrong, people can find themselves taken by surprise. For example Hurricane Otis in 2023.
I respect you Mike but I think all indications point to a Harris win. Early voting, women voting, older voters all pointing to. Harris victory. The state abortion referendums will end up surprising pundits. Democrats are much more enthusiastic than Republicans. Look at $DJT and Bitcoin dump. Solar is up.If I’m wrong, mea culpa.
👍