Wednesday , July 24 2024
Home / Video / My view on the “end” of the petrodollar.

My view on the “end” of the petrodollar.

Summary:
This may surprise you. Watch to the end. 

Topics:
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This may surprise you. Watch to the end. 
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

21 comments

  1. Almost everything I own is down today.

  2. By all means do some inclement weather episodes.
    Speaking of unscheduled incidents, I remember a report from the Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan, and while the reporter was talking about the deserted city, two stray dogs started humping in the background. It took the cameraman awhile to pan away from the sight.

  3. Loved your video today Mike. More of the same please! ❤

  4. I went short mnq futures today for some reason

  5. yer do the crazy environments while talking about economics and stuff that be cool

  6. Market update in a protest!! ❤

  7. The fact that US exports oil n dollar ternd means that US dollars are being taken out of global circulation. So in effect there is still upward presdure on the dollar. Meanwhile in other countries they are building tighter relationship with the US and the dollar.

  8. @homeyoutubechannel6609

    Would love to watch u do an update in the rain lol

  9. Any 50/50 random event will chart an Elliot Way over time. However, coin flipping, dice, etc. are not weighted like the equity mkts. The markets have a 'buy thumb' on the scales, circuit breakers, market limits and US Treasury purchases, just to name a few. Another great video Mike.

    Mike roll a pair of casino dice 100 times (air brushed dots, balanced cubes, not monopoly dice with dimples). Next, take a sheet of paper and keep a running total of the value of the rolls. When you reach 100 rolls the sum of the rolls will be between 694 and 706. 50% of your rolls will be even and 50% will be odd. 50% will be an 'inside' number of 5,6,8,9 and 50% will be an 'outside' number 2,3,4,7,10,11,12. Also, 50 of the numbers rolled will be less than 7 and 50% will be greater than 7. Now, chart all three of these data points eg. low vs high, even vs odd and 'inside' numbers vs 'outside' numbers. Now, you have 3 Elliot Waves staring you in the face. Any two in sync will point to the one out of sync. Thus forecasting the numbers that must roll to regress to the mean. As you know, everything 'regresses to the mean'. There are 36 combinations in dice, six to the six power. So, 1 standard div is 36 rolls, 2 standard div is 72 rolls and 3 standard dev is 108 rolls. A busy dice table has an average of 1 roll per minute. So, your charts are about 30 minutes from a 68% correct regression, 1 hr from being 95% correct regression and 1 1/2 hrs from a 99.7% regression correction. Of course, it NEVER reaches 100%. As they say, "investors CAN and DO lose money", so do dice gamblers.
    Mike get you an OSMO Pocket 3, no earthquakes.

  10. @coconutsfor2963

    I would watch the video of you in a storm- covering some MMT economics…

  11. @financeeconomics1057

    You gotta do it, post a video during a strong thunderstorm.

    A walk & talk while you're walking around Wall Street/some of the exchanges would be 😎.

  12. Logic doesnt check out. You rightly say that if there is any effect of this (which i agree probably wont change anything at all) will lead to the US having to run a balanced trade account. The mechanism through which this occurs is a weaker dollar. More precisely, trade partners no longer need to buy dollars to get oil, that is reduced buying pressure for dollars. These dollars need to be traded for some other good type exported by the US, but the US is currently uncompetitive in those markets. Dollars get traded in for currencies of nations more competitive such as yuan or yen. Dollar sinks, this makes us exports more competitive and balances the trade account. Your logic is the tail waging the dog.

  13. Rain filling up the swimming pool 😂

  14. @israelcontreras5332

    Thanks Mike!

  15. @user-it1mc3nq7h

    ❤👁

  16. Do it in all kind of weather for us Mike! you're the man! God bless you.

  17. I think you hit on something Mike! No one does this! You should give commentaries like you're doing out in like bad weather lol I think it would hit a positive nerve with everybody and I think your YouTube membership would soar! awesome to watch you doing a commentary during a snowstorm

  18. @falinoluiz5962

    Tornado in the background would be cool. Glad you're starting to have fun with these videos again.

  19. Love the optimism! 🙏

  20. The narrative driving the 'petrodollar doomsday freaks' is that the BRICS countries are supposedly abandoning the dollar in favour of their own alternative for international trade. As usual their understanding is flawed.

    The BRICS nations are not abandoning the dollar but they are abandoning the Western banking system.
    There has been a massive shift towards using Tether stablecoin in BRICS trading. Tether , based in Hong Kong, is almost exclusively backed by the US dollar. The BRICS are mostly commodity exporting countries and hold large amounts of dollars. They use their dollars to buy Tether stableccoin and then carry out international settlements with Tether stablecoin which is almost instant and completely outside the Western banking system.
    Previously the West had total visibility on global transactions but not anymore.
    The US dollar will continue for many years to be the preferred international currency. But settlement will be via various means and probably will lean more and more towards stablecoins.
    However dollar will remain King and probably get stronger as you wisely predict.

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