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The greatest long-term threat to the economy and the stock market.

Summary:
What if Social Security outlays start to go down? 

Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:

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What if Social Security outlays start to go down? 
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

22 comments

  1. MMT zombies keep buying 🎉🎉🎉 no matter what 😂

  2. Wow that was great. That is a main flow and nobody is talking about it. Hopefully other spending increases to offset it but in this climate with everyone clamoring to reduce spending I get a little nervous about it.

  3. @eatlaughandstupid4430

    border is opened…universal income could be a replacement…interesting brain storming video Mike…thank you for all you do…

  4. Good points!

  5. wow Mike -the peak in social security you're right no one's talking about it 👍

  6. @financeeconomics1057

    I've heard others say that social security/pensions will have be cut going forward, just to keep it together. demographics could impact markets in the way that you describe.

    japan peaked in 1989 and was in decline/stagnant for decades.

  7. Inequality is unsustainable.

    • It creates opposing pressures according to entropy, but it also fuels itself:
      Stronger rich sectors are more able to maintain their privileges.

  8. "The game is simple" Mike Norman
    The hard part is the context surrounding it … one gotta figure out the context

  9. All the big wigs saying it whether it's true or not, are just the priming of people's minds with what they are about to pull off.

  10. Now you see mike

  11. What people really don't understand that the national debt (US treasuries) is what moving trillions of dollars a day around the global market. US dollars are not used to settle accounts that's the job of US treasuries. Derivatives require a lot of national debt to keep that house of card standing.

  12. The recipients' roles will not decline this year, or the next year.
    Again you conflate the derivative of your measurement with your measurement.
    Only the derivative (growth) of social security payments may peak this year (2024).
    The may is because mortality rates can make it more difficult to predict.

  13. CONservative mindset that hates govt (top Trump donor Mercers openly wanted him for its destruction) should love the "deficit/debt" for that purpose. But it doesn't occur to them because… lol, they think we'll have to pay it OFF at some point, even though we've never even had to pay it down; and despite all the dramatic sound & fury, effective tax rates haven't changed in a century.

    But irrational fearmongering works better than anything: Most Americans can't even handle self-evident truth that #OpenBorders (& NoncitizenVoting) #MadeAmericaGreat. (#MAGA!)

  14. On top of the Boomers leaving the sheet show they created, they will leave us with world-record Private debt.

  15. ❤👁

  16. @heinodersanger9809

    So, whey does seasonality not support your peak fiscal flow theory? If it was right, the market should almost always have its strongest month in February, but that's not the case.

  17. Good points as always, Mike. 14:50 Actually, part of defense spending is non-discretionary, because NATO requires at least 2% of GDP.

  18. Japan is coming to America make no doubt about it.

  19. The debt itself may be OK. The problem is the interest that needs to be paid as a % of tax received.

  20. Mechanically everything Mike says is true. We are living in a fiscal dominate doom loop reality. What he's not telling you is that there are limits and more importantly it's what's driving inflation. All this fiscal spend is great for the 1% who can trade on it, but for the average American inflation is a TAX and a reduction of their standard of living. Mike has a grotesque, warped view on the economy and how it impacts the average family. 99% of government is non-productive and to suggest they can go to the magic money tree and make things better is the biggest of all scams. This ends badly and he knows it and so do you. Mike is a propagandist for big government and his smarmy profiteering on the heads of Americans is sickening.

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