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Thinking there are predictable and infallible conditions you can always count on is a path to ruin. Learn to think, understand, analyze and behave. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/ Download my podcasts! New one every week. https://www.buzzsprout.com/1105286 Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/
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Thinking there are predictable and infallible conditions you can always count on is a path to ruin. Learn to think, understand, analyze and behave. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/ Download my podcasts! New one every week. https://www.buzzsprout.com/1105286 Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/
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| Thinking there are predictable and infallible conditions you can always count on is a path to ruin. Learn to think, understand, analyze and behave. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/ Download my podcasts! New one every week. https://www.buzzsprout.com/1105286 Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://mikenormaneconomics.blogspot.com/ |
Harder than predicting weather because the market changes the more information it has about itself. That does no happen with weather forecasting.
Mike, outlays are $760B than last year. Income taxes are 50% higher because income and Corp profits are higher. This brings net spending down, but doesn’t mean the end. Corp income continuing to grow and like you have in the past, stocks will follow profits.
Yep, plus the calendar quirk of tax day getting delayed last year, which affects the YoY deficit.
@Oliver Tilk good point.
Folks, this hasn't been a "calendar quirk", it's been a prolonged narrowing of the rate of growth of fiscal spending. Regardless of what the YoY number is, if one simply looks at the rate of movement of fiscal flows, they've clearly been slowing down since March. And following this metric (not YoY), just commutative / rolling net change of the TGA.
Those that have mentioned taxes are correct. There's been 3 "lumps" of taxes back to back, first in mid May, another one in end of May, and the latest one from June 15 (corporate).
The TGA went back up to 750bln, so perhaps 250bln get disgorged from now till the 30th, with little to no new issuance, ending June with 500bln as expected.
Should the market sell off, the sign of a turnaround is when you see them start to auction CMBs in large sizes. These get deployed and rescue just about any market condition these days.
TA kinda works, until it doesn't.
Conditions are never exactly the same, even when variables suggest certain outcomes.
So Peter Schiff isn't wrong 100% of the time? It's more like 99.9% , right? lol
You are wrong 101% of the time.
@Pete D Are you saying that Peter Schiff is wrong all the time or that 'HubleTrader001' is wrong about Peter Schiff's viewpoint?
@harperonline Schiff is not always right. He does make a lot of good calls on the economy. Nobody is right all the time, but some people are wrong all the time
Oh my gosh Sammy Davis Jr !!! Yes ? ???
I understand the point he’s trying to make with “axiomatic thinking” because even those pro technical traders that use strict systems and trading rules and are VERY profitable using those systems and analyzing charts are NOT right 100% of the time. And that’s basically your whole argument, period. So it can’t be disputed from that standpoint.
So, is he out of the market or what?
Hey Mike, awesome as always. I really wish you would make your course available on udemy or something. I know you want people to go to the website, but you might get some more takers by moving your MMT course over to a bigger platform. Also, maybe hire a young social media marketer to help you feed your video to the algorithms. You deserve way more than a 6300 subscribers. Insanely low given your unique combo of MMT and practical trading knowledge. I'm not talking trash, just saying you deserve way more views.
You should have made this video two months ago! Sob!
About Deathcorsses, isn't it a case of, everyone thinks the same thing and acts the same way therefore the market does what everyone's expecting.
Would not be shocked to see profit taking end of 2nd quarter between now and June 30. Also Shwartzmen CEO Blackstone touting get used to idea of increase capital gain tax so sell this year before tax change, (said on Bloomberg). Hedge fund Pershing Square got spanked on Supreme Court ruling that Biden can fire FHFA director can be fired by Biden (Calabria Trump chronnie, whom was perceived to dissolve FNMA and FMCC, but now Biden expected to move to keep Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in tact with his new chronnie. Ackerman perceived to have gotten a smack down on those stocks dumping hard on ruling.
Recall Schwarzman CEO Blackstone gave himself hefty bonus money when managing Chinese Wealth Fund losing 2 billion and he got 600 million bonus for one quarter. Greed is good as Gordon Geico would say. Cynical comment no admiration in this rip off action to anyone. Recall Quote "Regulatory agencies within five years become controlled by industries they were set up to regulate{. Gabriel Kolko (American historian and author, 1932-2014).
Mike you have opened my eyes to better understanding of the market dynamics over the years following you, always a treat to here your thoughts .
Mike – I get that net transfers are down yoy, but they are still positive – do they have to be ever increasing? Or are you concerned that they will turn negative at some point? I would think that the pandemic would cause record net transfers and be an anomaly vs out-years…what am I missing?