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How to explain rate setting and bond issuance.

Summary:
Ask questions and lead people to the correct conclusions.

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Ask questions and lead people to the correct conclusions.
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

34 comments

  1. first. again

  2. Are you going to start ignoring the haters and answer some questions from your genuine followers? Your channel doesn't grow because it doesn't evolve with its community.

    Months ago I queried the rate that the interest payments would decrease. Perhaps we could have collectively come to a better conclusion than your very bearish outlook that was made too early.

  3. I look at copper (and zinc) as good economic gauges. The price of these metals are driven mostly by the changes in demand from industry use.
    Whereas gold, the demand is more dependent on fear.

  4. Hit $155k today. I'm really grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in January

  5. crazy stuff, seems like the whole monetary system is some kind of ponzi

  6. Mike, not a good one today. 1) if Fed set long term rates why did they go up when Fed cut? 2) if no bought UST the Fed would buy increasing the monetary base and creating inflation. UST allows gov't to spend w/o causing inflation.

  7. Appreciate your explanation. More explainers like this please.  
    On a different note, you say that interest income contributes to net government flows to "fill the swimming pool." Is this through bond and treasury sales only? You say that this interest income contributes to inflation., and that it goes mainly to people who are already wealthy. Is this interest income only realized once a bond is sold or a treasury redeemed? I'm trying to understand in a more specific way the paths this money takes into the non-government economy. Thanks.

    • @@niemerow1953 I never said interest income contributes to inflation. Interest in income it’s just another component of government spending. There is no direct connection between that and inflation.

  8. Thanks for the updates, Mike. 10 year bond at 4.461.

  9. Imagine Mike Norman Secretary of Treasury

  10. Housing shortage or housing hoarding problem? The average age for a buyer is 57 years old…

  11. money printing causes inflation

  12. THANK YOU, Mike for explaining the interest rate. I’ve heard Warren discuss it many times that the natural interest rate is 0, but he doesn’t explain why. I have read his pamphlet & I still didn’t get why the rate would fall to 0. I couldn’t understand why the banks in overnight settlements wouldn’t still charge each other a nominal rate. By your descriptive analysis I feel I have a better understanding now 🙂

  13. Wrong! Fed sets the fed funds rate that impacts 1 month treasuries. Bond market sets the rest of the duration. Answer me this, why did the first 50 bp reduction result in an increase in long dated bonds? 10 yr is still advancing with latest 25 bp reduction. Fed doesn’t set mid-long term interest rates …. Unless they get into active curve control = QE.

    • Yeah but you are talking about off the run OLD treasuries. Subject to whether the banking system needs collateral. Look at on the run treasuries and you will find your fed cuts

  14. I'm not convinced there is a housing shortage. Based on the numbers it seems there are more housing units per person now compared to 2000.

    2000: 0.415 housing units / person (116,914,000 housing units vs 281,421,906 pop)

    2024: 0.436 housing units / person (147,029,000 housing units vs 337,413,300 pop)

    It seems to me the issue may be related to investors (e.g. AirBNB and other rentals) and a higher percentage of people owning multiple homes. The numbers seem to show that housing starts have kept up with population growth sufficiently.

  15. If you get rid of the "holding capital against reserves" rule, any small bank can grow up to JPM size bank if they want, right? Idk, is it strange?

  16. In the commitment of traders chart it looks like small speculators are heavily long t-bonds (as they ramped up prior to first fed rate cut). I think as long as this is not resolved rates will go up.

  17. Would you pleasespeek with trump and Elon? If I get it it’s not that hard!

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