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Russia rally!

Summary:
Russia pulls troops back, market up big. However, don't expect the Biden Administration to relax attempts to get a war going. Market perspective.

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Russia pulls troops back, market up big. However, don't expect the Biden Administration to relax attempts to get a war going. Market perspective.
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

27 comments

  1. It was obviously never going to happen. Putin even said he can't beat NATO. Attacking would be against his own self-preservation.

  2. Biden with egg on his senile face. Brilliant move on Russia's part. To save face, Biden's handlers will try to re-coup?

  3. Biden held a presser at the end of the day to continue the fear mongering.

  4. If the Russians were not amassing troops and equipment at the border, as you claim, how could they pull them back? Also, somehow you think you know what is inside Putin's head as well as Biden's head – which you don't. This is the same sloppy thinking that turned you into a Trumpster.

    • Right? Mike was the one of the first who was ‘worried’ about this Ukraine thing from the start.. news to me he’s now saying ‘it was never a problem’?! What? Where was he saying that weeks ago?

      Even here he’s saying it’s not an issue on one hand and on the other he’s saying it is and hopes there’s no war… errr wtf? Which is it? Is it something to worry about or not?

  5. Putin doesn't know how to pull out, just ask his girlfriend hahaha…

  6. 1 thing i'm proud of is i never voted for anyone who won the seat they were seeking, so none of this shit i voted for, DON'T BLAME ME! lol

  7. Sleepy Jo Biden said inflation is so high, that even the letters on his BINGO card look smaller hahaha..

  8. " income doesn't fly off into outer space" unless you're Elon Musk.

  9. So basically inflation is just an excuse to syphon more corporate profits to the elites?

  10. Putin blinked. Biden is the Churchill of our times.

  11. បេះដូង

    Take profits when you can. Don't just sit and watch the market go down again.

  12. American Exploring

    Let Russia joins NATO can be an ideal solution.

  13. Thank mike for your insight

  14. Totally agree Mike. Market is gonna rip for at least a few months!

  15. Mike if we see aggressive rate hikes, especially coming off 0%, dont assets like stocks/real estate/bonds need to be repriced downward? If your 500k mortgage goes up 3% in a couple years where does the average family find another 15k? And weren't stocks an awful inflation hedge in the 70s?

    • @UClao5wMSHPLS61XAZvKP4vw that's 15k in one year man, 3% of 500k.

    • What if corporate earnings go up 20%? Do you think a 3% interest rate is going to really matter?

    • @Robert yes and no. There is alot of debt, certainly much more than earnings. Hard to find data but S&P trading at 25.5 PE so earnings are less than 1.5t. There is 11 trillion of debt out there with probably less than 2.5t earnings accross entire US market so 20% earnings growth would be 500 billion but 3% jump in debt servicing costs would be 330 billion. But man, if the average household starts needing to find over 10k a year more money to cover their debt servicing costs hard to think earnings can go up that much. People will have to cut back on some things. Surely many companies have the power to maintain biz as usual with nice margins but I doubt MOST would. I think this is why we see the rotation from growth to value taking place now

  16. There was no way Belarus would be the staging ground of an invasion of Ukraine, not when they're presenting themselves as a credible interlocutor for the peace process (ie the Minsk agreement). They've prosecuted their citizens who've volunteered on both sides of the Ukrainian civil war.

    That Putin would use the annual Zapad exercises w/Belarus to sneak attack Ukraine was pure western fantasy and wish-fulfillment.

  17. The fed is dumping into every rally. Just like they were buying into every dip. The market may be goin higher but they will slash it down leavng bag holders left and right. They are unwinding.

  18. USA worsted terrorists

  19. USA should learn how to mind there own business..

  20. This market still has a lot of room to go down. To focus on corporate profits and fiscal flows as your reasoning for markets to go up won't work in this environment. It is completely sentiment driven. Look at Tesla…. it had great earnings yet they still fell on announcement since the broader market wasn't too hot. I've seen so many analysts make that mistake (usually having a fancy CFA or wtv other three letter word in front of their name) and they usually end up shitting the bed with their theory. FOCUS ON TECHNICALS… and the technicals are SCREAMING for lower here. Fundamentals shmundamentals. Relying on such factors in a market that is completely and utterly divorced from reality is a recipe for disasters.

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