Jobless claims start out 2023 where they left off in 2022 – as positive – by New Deal democrat It took a little while for FRED to post this data today, but with that reason for a delay . . . Initial jobless claims started off 2023 where they left off in 2022, with another good print. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 205,000, while the more important 4 week average declined -1,750 to 212,500. Continuing claims also declined, down -63,000 to 1.634 million: Let me just add a small caution that we are in the time when Holiday season adds the most distortions even to seasonally adjusted data. For purposes of recession watching, we want to know if claims are higher YoY, the first sign of weakness. And the answer is, they are not:
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: January 2023, jobless claims, New Deal Democrat, politics, US EConomics, US/Global Economics
This could be interesting, too:
Robert Skidelsky writes Speech in the House of Lords – Autumn Budget 2024
Merijn T. Knibbe writes Völkermord in Gaza. Two million deaths are in the cards.
Peter Radford writes Who brought us Trump?
NewDealdemocrat writes Real GDP for Q3 nicely positive, but long leading components mediocre to negative for the second quarter in a row
Jobless claims start out 2023 where they left off in 2022 – as positive
– by New Deal democrat
It took a little while for FRED to post this data today, but with that reason for a delay . . .
Initial jobless claims started off 2023 where they left off in 2022, with another good print. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 205,000, while the more important 4 week average declined -1,750 to 212,500. Continuing claims also declined, down -63,000 to 1.634 million:
Let me just add a small caution that we are in the time when Holiday season adds the most distortions even to seasonally adjusted data.
For purposes of recession watching, we want to know if claims are higher YoY, the first sign of weakness. And the answer is, they are not:
Initial jobless claims at this point are the last man standing among positive, or at least neutral, significant short leading indicators. And so they remain.
“New jobless claims will end 2022 on a positive note,” Angry Bear, angry bear blog