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Q3 2018 update: “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator”

Summary:
By New Deal democrat Q3 2018 update: “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator” One of the methods I incorporate into my long leading indicators is the “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator.” This is something I first read about in 2007, when the eponymous Paul Kasriel, then of Northern Trust and now of Legacy Private Trust Co., wrote that it forecast a recession within the next year. Needless to say, his call was on the mark! The indicator consists of a monetary and a yield curve component. Kasriel issued another forecast based on the model two months ago. I took a detailed look  over at Seeking Alpha. As always, clicking over and reading should be worthwhile for you, and also for me by way of rewarding me for my efforts.

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by New Deal democrat

Q3 2018 update: “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator”

One of the methods I incorporate into my long leading indicators is the “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator.” This is something I first read about in 2007, when the eponymous Paul Kasriel, then of Northern Trust and now of Legacy Private Trust Co., wrote that it forecast a recession within the next year. Needless to say, his call was on the mark!

The indicator consists of a monetary and a yield curve component. Kasriel issued another forecast based on the model two months ago. I took a detailed look  over at Seeking Alpha.

As always, clicking over and reading should be worthwhile for you, and also for me by way of rewarding me for my efforts.

Dan Crawford
aka Rdan owns, designs, moderates, and manages Angry Bear since 2007. Dan is the fourth ‘owner’.

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