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A note on initial jobless claims

Summary:
A note on initial jobless claims Initial jobless claims for last week were reported at 206,000 this morning. That is one of the lowest weekly readings during this expansion.More significantly, the 4 week moving average is back below 10% off its low, within the range of typical noise: And it is down -4.6% YoY, which as the below graph going back 50 years shows, is actually a quite positive reading: I continue to expect a slowdown next year, so I am not expecting any substantial improvement in this number, but it is certainly not negative now.

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A note on initial jobless claims

Initial jobless claims for last week were reported at 206,000 this morning. That is one of the lowest weekly readings during this expansion.More significantly, the 4 week moving average is back below 10% off its low, within the range of typical noise:

A note on initial jobless claims

And it is down -4.6% YoY, which as the below graph going back 50 years shows, is actually a quite positive reading:

A note on initial jobless claims

I continue to expect a slowdown next year, so I am not expecting any substantial improvement in this number, but it is certainly not negative now.

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