I have a new article that hopefully will get posted by Seeking Alpha later today. In the meantime … Two weeks ago I wrote an article establishing a manufacturing baseline for my forecast of an economic slowdown by about the middle of next year. I concluded that by saying: the first thing I am looking for is decelerating growth which will show up in a reading below 15 in the average of Regional Fed reports, and below 60 in ISM new orders. The ISM new orders index did fall below 60 to a new nearly 2 year low (but still positive!) at the beginning of this month. This could of course all be noise, but I’ve made a forecast, I’ve laid down some markers, and the data is – at least on an initial basis – hitting those markers. *(okay, technically not
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NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: US/Global Economics
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Two weeks ago I wrote an article establishing a manufacturing baseline for my forecast of an economic slowdown by about the middle of next year. I concluded that by saying:
the first thing I am looking for is decelerating growth which will show up in a reading below 15 in the average of Regional Fed reports, and below 60 in ISM new orders.
The ISM new orders index did fall below 60 to a new nearly 2 year low (but still positive!) at the beginning of this month.
This could of course all be noise, but I’ve made a forecast, I’ve laid down some markers, and the data is – at least on an initial basis – hitting those markers.
*(okay, technically not “below” 15, but close enough).