November jobs report: another good report with some signs of deceleration HEADLINES: +155,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.2% from 7.4% to 7.6% Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: rose +88,000 from 5.309 million to 5.397 million Part time for economic reasons: rose +181,000 from 4.621 million to 4.802 million Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: unchanged at 79.7% Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $.07 from .89 to .95, up +3.1% YoY. (Note: you may be reading different information about wages elsewhere. They are citing average wages for all
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November jobs report: another good report with some signs of deceleration
HEADLINES:
- +155,000 jobs added
- U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%
- U6 underemployment rate rose 0.2% from 7.4% to 7.6%
Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment:
Wages and participation rates
- Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: rose +88,000 from 5.309 million to 5.397 million
- Part time for economic reasons: rose +181,000 from 4.621 million to 4.802 million
- Employment/population ratio ages 25-54: unchanged at 79.7%
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $.07 from $22.89 to $22.95, up +3.1% YoY. (Note: you may be reading different information about wages elsewhere. They are citing average wages for all private workers. I use wages for nonsupervisory personnel, to come closer to the situation for ordinary workers.)
Trump specifically campaigned on bringing back manufacturing and mining jobs. Is he keeping this promise?
- Manufacturing jobs rose +27,000 for an average of +20.000/month in the past year vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of +10,300 manufacturing jobs were added each month.
- Coal mining jobs rose +400 for an average of +75/month vs. the last seven years of Obama’s presidency in which an average of -300 jobs were lost each month
September was revised downward by -13,000. October was revised upward by +1,000, for a net change of -12,000.
The more leading numbers in the report tell us about where the economy is likely to be a few months from now. These were mixed.
- the average manufacturing workweek was unchanged at 40.8 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
- construction jobs rose by +6300. YoY construction jobs are up +71,400.
- temporary jobs rose by +8300. This is positive, but marks continued deceleration from its 12 month average of +15,000.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less rose by +69,000 from 2,057,000 to 2,126,000. The post-recession low was set six months ago at 2,034,000.
Other important coincident indicators help us paint a more complete picture of the present:
- Overtime was unchanged at 3.5 hours.
- Professional and business employment (generally higher-paying jobs) increased by +32,000 and is up +563,000 YoY.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by +0.1%.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by +0.7%.
- the alternate jobs number contained in the more volatile household survey increased by +233,000 jobs. This represents an increase of 2,759,000 jobs YoY vs. 2,443,000 in the establishment survey.
- Government jobs decreased by -6,000.
- the overall employment to population ratio for all ages 16 and up was unchanged at 60.6% m/m and is +0.5% YoY.
- The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.9% m/m and is up +0.2% YoY.
SUMMARY
This was another good report. The worst that can be said is that it is a deceleration from last month’s excellent report, which I described as overall the best of this entire expansion. Perhaps the most positive aspect of this report was the nice pop in aggregate payrolls, up 0.7%, and that nominal wages for average workers coninued to increase more than 3% YoY.
There was a little fraying around the edges, as involuntary part time employment, the U-6 underemployment rate, and the number of those who aren’t even looking but would like a job now all increased. Temporary employment, a particularly good leading indicator for overall employment, shows continued signs of deceleration (growth, but at a slower pace).
Bottom line: clear sailing in the present and in the near future, with some grayish clouds perhaps on the horizon.