Initial claims: simply, good news The bottom line for both initial and continued claims this week is simple: unadulterated, absolute good news. Initial jobless claims declined 29,000 to 348,000, 20,000 below their previous pandemic low. The 4 week average of claims declined by 19,000 to 377,750, 6,750 below its previous pandemic low of 384,500: Significant progress in the decline of initial claims had stalled for the last 2 months, but as of this week, that has ended. The story is the same for continuing claims, which declined 79,000 to another new pandemic low of 2,820,000: This continues this series’ recent declining trend that began on May 29. As I have noted before, this may reflect the termination of special pandemic
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: initial jobless claims, US EConomics
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes JOLTS revisions from Yesterday’s Report
Bill Haskell writes The North American Automobile Industry Waits for Trump and the Gov. to Act
Bill Haskell writes Families Struggle Paying for Child Care While Working
Joel Eissenberg writes Time for Senate Dems to stand up against Trump/Musk
Initial claims: simply, good news
The bottom line for both initial and continued claims this week is simple: unadulterated, absolute good news.
Initial jobless claims declined 29,000 to 348,000, 20,000 below their previous pandemic low. The 4 week average of claims declined by 19,000 to 377,750, 6,750 below its previous pandemic low of 384,500:
Significant progress in the decline of initial claims had stalled for the last 2 months, but as of this week, that has ended.
The story is the same for continuing claims, which declined 79,000 to another new pandemic low of 2,820,000:
This continues this series’ recent declining trend that began on May 29. As I have noted before, this may reflect the termination of special pandemic benefits in many States, the impact of $15 minimum wages and signing bonuses being offered, or other items.
From the long term perspective, below is the current level of continuing claims (blue), together with the 4 week average of initial claims* (red), and the unemployment rate from last week’s jobs report* (gold)(*adjusted for scale)(all current values = zero). The first two are consistent with early- to mid-expansions over the past 40 years, while the unemployment rate is consistent with mid-expansion or later:
Last week I wrote that the trend in claims was “under the control of the Delta variant . . . . , [because of which] I consider it likely that initial claims do not make much more headway.” Barring a huge upward revision next week, I was wrong. And for good news, I am happy to have been wrong, and I hope it continues.