Tag Archives: initial jobless claims

Initial jobless claims continue positive, suggesting good news for the tomorrow’s February unemployment rate as well  – by New Deal democrat The most important reason I cover initial jobless claims is because they are an “official” short leading indicator. They are also very good at forecasting the short-term trend in the unemployment rate in the monthly jobs report, which will be updated for February tomorrow. And the news continues to be...

Initial claims remain positive  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined this week -8,000 to 212,000. The four week average rose 5,750 to 218,250. With the typical one-week lag, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.865 million: On the more important (for forecasting purposes) YoY basis, initial claims are down -1.9%. The four week average is up 5.4%. Continuing claims are up 10.3%: Initial claims indicate continued...

Initial jobless claims: moving closer to a red flag warning  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 12,000 last week to 248,000. The 4 week average declined -3,500 to 253,250. With a one week lag, continued claims declined -13,000 to 1.20 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 17.1% YoY. The more important 4 week average is up 18.1%, and continuing claims are up 27.0%: This is...

Initial claims close out the year still positive  – by New Deal democrat This morning we got the final economic news of the year, as initial claims for the week rose 9,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average declined 250 to 221,000. Continuing claims rose 41,000 to 1,710,000, a 10-month high: The weekly number was actually 14,000 higher than one year ago, but that is not significant. The 4-week average and the continuing claims numbers...

Increasing trend in jobless claims continues; on track to give recession warning in November Initial jobless claims rose another 7,000 to 251,000 last week, an 8 month high. The 4 week average rose 4,500 to 240,500, a 7+ month high.  And continuing claims also rose 51,000 to 1,384,000, which is 78,000 above their 50 year low set on May 21: Three weeks ago I noted that reviewing the entire 50+ year history of initial claims, “there are almost...

Initial jobless claims now in a clear uptrend, and other economic notes for the week First, a note on other economic news from earlier this week.  The housing market is getting absolutely crushed by 10 year+ high mortgage rates. Mortgage applications fell to levels not seen since 2017 (except for a few weeks during the 2020 Covid lockdowns). Refinancing is at 20 year lows. The next questions are when prices will peak, and what will happen with...

Initial and continuing jobless claims: the good news continues The good news for both initial and continued claims continued this week. Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 353,000 from last week’s pandemic low. The 4 week average of claims declined by 11,500 to 366,500, another new pandemic low: Significant progress in the decline of initial claims had stalled for the last 2 months, but that has ended.The story is the same for...

Initial claims: simply, good news The bottom line for both initial and continued claims this week is simple: unadulterated, absolute good news. Initial jobless claims declined 29,000 to 348,000, 20,000 below their previous pandemic low. The 4 week average of claims declined by 19,000 to 377,750, 6,750 below its previous pandemic low of 384,500: Significant progress in the decline of initial claims had stalled for the last 2 months, but...