Blogger RJS,@ Market Watch 666, “August Durable Goods: New Orders Up 1.8%, Shipments Down 0.5%, Inventories Up 0.8%“ The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for August (pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the widely watched new orders for manufactured durable goods increased by .6 billion or 1.8 percent to 3.5 billion in August, after rising by a revised 0.5% in July….July’s new orders were revised from the 6.9 billion reported last month to 8.9 billion, and hence the month over month percentage change for new orders was revised from a decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.5%…even with that upward revision and the August increase, year to date new orders are now running
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Blogger RJS,@ Market Watch 666, “August Durable Goods: New Orders Up 1.8%, Shipments Down 0.5%, Inventories Up 0.8%“
The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders for August (pdf) from the Census Bureau reported that the value of the widely watched new orders for manufactured durable goods increased by $4.6 billion or 1.8 percent to $263.5 billion in August, after rising by a revised 0.5% in July….July’s new orders were revised from the $246.9 billion reported last month to $258.9 billion, and hence the month over month percentage change for new orders was revised from a decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.5%…even with that upward revision and the August increase, year to date new orders are now running 24.7% above those of 2020, a decrease from the 25.3% year-to date change we saw in this report last month…….
As is usually the case, the volatile monthly change in new orders for transportation equipment drove this month’s headline change, as those transportation equipment orders rose $4.2 billion or 5.5 percent to $80.8 billion, on a 77.9% increase to $16,327 million in new orders for commercial aircraft….excluding new orders for transportation equipment, other new orders were up just 0.2% in August, led by a 2.0% or $0.5 billion increase to $36,488 million in new orders for fabricated metal products, while new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for equipment investment intentions, rose 0.5% to $77,082 million…
Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted value of August’s shipments of durable goods, which will be inputs into various components of 3rd quarter GDP after adjusting for changes in prices, fell for the first time in four months, decreasing by $1.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $256.1 billion, after the value of July’s shipments was revised from $257.8 billion to $257.3 million, thus revising the previously reported increase in July shipments from 2.2% to one of 2.0% from June….a decrease in shipments of transportation equipment was responsible for the August decrease, as such shipments fell $2.0 billion or 2.7 percent to $73.5 billion, as shipments of motor vehicles fell 2.7% to $51,540 million and shipments of commercial aircraft fell 3.2% to $7,789 million, while shipments excluding transportation equipment rose 0.5% to $182,581 million…meanwhile, shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.7% to $74,877, after rising 0.9% in July, and are thus on track to make a solid positive contribution to 3rd quarter GDP…
At the same time, the value of seasonally adjusted inventories of durable goods, also a major GDP contributor, rose for the seventh consecutive month, increasing by $3.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $457.9 billion, after July’s inventories were revised from $453.6 billion to $454.4 billion, which is now an 0.8% increase from June…an increase in inventories of transportation equipment led the August inventory increase, as they rose $1.3 billion or 0.8 percent to $153.4 billion, on a 2.4% increase to $49,223 million in inventories of motor vehicles and parts….
Finally, unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods, which are probably a better measure of industry conditions than the widely watched but volatile new orders, rose for the seventh consecutive month, increasing by $11.8 billion or 1.0 percent to $1,239.3 billion, after July’s unfilled orders rose 0.5% to $1,227.5 billion from June, revised from the 0.3% increase to $1,225.4 billion reported last month….a $7.3 billion or 0.9 percent increase to $820.8 billion in unfilled orders for transportation equipment led the August increase, but unfilled orders other than those for transportation equipment also rose 1.1% to $418.5 billion…. compared to a year earlier, the unfilled order book for durable goods is now 4.0% above the level of last August, even as unfilled orders for transportation equipment are still 0.9% below their year ago level, largely on a 9.5% decrease in the backlog of orders for defense aircraft…