By New Deal democrat Short term economic forecast through mid year 2022 My short-term forecast for the first half of this year is up at Seeking Alpha. This forecast is based on the same system I have successfully used since before the Great Recession. Most forecasters, deliberately or not, cherry pick data points to fit a previously arrived at an intellectual point of view, and simply project the current trend ahead (or else default to the inevitable “We’re DOOOMED!). The short leading indicators, in contrast, forecast a change in the trend before the lion’s share of the data is affected. Clicking through and reading will give you a good idea of what is ahead from now till the 4th of July and will pay for some bourbon and firewood to
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: Uncategorized
This could be interesting, too:
tom writes The Ukraine war and Europe’s deepening march of folly
Stavros Mavroudeas writes CfP of Marxist Macroeconomic Modelling workgroup – 18th WAPE Forum, Istanbul August 6-8, 2025
Lars Pålsson Syll writes The pretence-of-knowledge syndrome
Dean Baker writes Crypto and Donald Trump’s strategic baseball card reserve
by New Deal democrat
Short term economic forecast through mid year 2022
My short-term forecast for the first half of this year is up at Seeking Alpha.
This forecast is based on the same system I have successfully used since before the Great Recession. Most forecasters, deliberately or not, cherry pick data points to fit a previously arrived at an intellectual point of view, and simply project the current trend ahead (or else default to the inevitable “We’re DOOOMED!). The short leading indicators, in contrast, forecast a change in the trend before the lion’s share of the data is affected.
Clicking through and reading will give you a good idea of what is ahead from now till the 4th of July and will pay for some bourbon and firewood to help get me through the cold winter nights still ahead.