Tuesday , October 4 2022
Home / The Angry Bear / Positive real retail sales in August, but YoY flatness continues

Positive real retail sales in August, but YoY flatness continues

Summary:
Positive real retail sales in August, but YoY flatness continues  – by New Deal democrat Retail sales, probably my favorite monthly economic datapoint, increased 0.3% in August. Since consumer prices rose 0.1%, real retail sales rose 0.2%: That’s certainly good news. Now here’s the bad news: July’s retail sales were revised downward by -0.4%, so that real retail sales, reported last month as +0.1%, are now shown down by a little less than -0.4%.  Thus as shown above real retail sales are still -1.1% below their April peak. Ex-autos, retail sales were down -0.3%, and unchanged ex-autos and ex-gas, reversing July’s initially reported gains – which in the case of autos were revised down sharply to -0.4%. As I note almost every

Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: , , ,

This could be interesting, too:

Barkley Rosser writes Report From Moscow

run75441 writes He thought they were migrants on the bus

run75441 writes Aggregate Medicare payments to Medicare Advantage plans

NewDealdemocrat writes August personal income and spending: major downward revisions overwhelm modestly positive monthly gains

Positive real retail sales in August, but YoY flatness continues

 – by New Deal democrat

Retail sales, probably my favorite monthly economic datapoint, increased 0.3% in August. Since consumer prices rose 0.1%, real retail sales rose 0.2%:

Positive real retail sales in August, but YoY flatness continues

That’s certainly good news. Now here’s the bad news: July’s retail sales were revised downward by -0.4%, so that real retail sales, reported last month as +0.1%, are now shown down by a little less than -0.4%. 

Thus as shown above real retail sales are still -1.1% below their April peak.

Ex-autos, retail sales were down -0.3%, and unchanged ex-autos and ex-gas, reversing July’s initially reported gains – which in the case of autos were revised down sharply to -0.4%.

As I note almost every month, real retail sales (/2) are a good short leading indicator for employment. Here’s the long term view from 1993-2019:

Positive real retail sales in August, but YoY flatness continues

While real retail sales were down YoY for several months, this month they are up 0.8% YoY, the second positive yearly comparison in a row. Here is the updated above comparison with payrolls since June 2021:

Positive real retail sales in August, but YoY flatness continues

Retail sales continue to forecast a deceleration in monthly payroll gains. Here’s the monthly % change in payrolls for the past year:

Positive real retail sales in August, but YoY flatness continues

Last autumn’s Booming payroll gains are a thing of the past. Payrolls gains averaging 0.2% (about 300,000) or less are what we should expect for the rest of this year. 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *