Despite 6+ month low in initial claims, yellow caution flag remains – by New Deal democrat Last week the initial claims numbers justified restarting the yellow caution flag. This week initial jobless claims declined -13,000 to a 6+ month low of 216,000. The 4-week moving average declined -8,500 to 229,250. With a one-week lag, continuing claims declined 40,000 to 1.679 million: Since last year ago at this time also saw a steep decline, it is possible that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in these numbers. The YoY% changes were +9.6% for the weekly number, +11.3% for the more important 4 week moving average, and +27.6% for continuing claims: Additionally, and most importantly of all, the monthly average for August was
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: Hot Topics, initial claims, politics, September 2023, US EConomics
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes Retail Real Sales
Angry Bear writes Planned Tariffs, An Economy Argument with Political Implications
Joel Eissenberg writes Will DOGE be an exercise in futility?
Bill Haskell writes The spider’s web called Healthcare Insurance
Despite 6+ month low in initial claims, yellow caution flag remains
– by New Deal democrat
Last week the initial claims numbers justified restarting the yellow caution flag. This week initial jobless claims declined -13,000 to a 6+ month low of 216,000. The 4-week moving average declined -8,500 to 229,250. With a one-week lag, continuing claims declined 40,000 to 1.679 million:
Since last year ago at this time also saw a steep decline, it is possible that there is some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in these numbers.
The YoY% changes were +9.6% for the weekly number, +11.3% for the more important 4 week moving average, and +27.6% for continuing claims:
Additionally, and most importantly of all, the monthly average for August was up +13.1%:
Recall that in the nearly 60 year history of claims, 2 consecutive months of YoY% increases in excess of 12.5% have more often than not meant that a recession is close to beginning. Between the monthly YoY increase, and the +10.3% increase YoY in the 4 week average, there is enough to justify a yellow flag caution – although if we continue to get numbers like this week’s 216,000, that won’t last long.
YoY initial claims restart the yellow caution flag, suggest unemployment will rise towards 4.0%, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat