Initial claims continue recent excellent streak – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued their recent excellent reports, as there were only 192,000 new claims, down -3,000 from the week before, and close to their 50+ year lows of last March and April. The 4 week average increased 1,500 to 191,250, still an excellent number. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1,654,000, still in their slightly elevated range that started in November: On a YoY basis, contnuing claims were slightly higher, while initial claims were slightly lower: Remember, I do not believe there is any recession signal until initial claims on a 4 week moving average basis are at least 10% higher YoY. The almost complete lack of
Topics:
NewDealdemocrat considers the following as important: Hot Topics, jobless claims, US EConomics
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes JOLTS revisions from Yesterday’s Report
Joel Eissenberg writes No Invading Allies Act
Bill Haskell writes The North American Automobile Industry Waits for Trump and the Gov. to Act
Bill Haskell writes Families Struggle Paying for Child Care While Working
Initial claims continue recent excellent streak
– by New Deal democrat
Initial jobless claims continued their recent excellent reports, as there were only 192,000 new claims, down -3,000 from the week before, and close to their 50+ year lows of last March and April. The 4 week average increased 1,500 to 191,250, still an excellent number. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1,654,000, still in their slightly elevated range that started in November:
On a YoY basis, contnuing claims were slightly higher, while initial claims were slightly lower:
Remember, I do not believe there is any recession signal until initial claims on a 4 week moving average basis are at least 10% higher YoY.
The almost complete lack of layoffs remains one of the two biggest signals (along with near-record housing units under construction) contra any near-term recession.
As Holiday seasonality disappears, initial jobless claims turn higher YoY, Angry Bear, New Deal democrat