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Some and not many Pundits are Optimistic Trump Will Win, I am Not.

Summary:
This is not 2016 and Trump got one hell of a shellacking from Harris in the debate. She was smiling . . . This forecast by Nate Silver seems to me to be a bit optimistic. about Trump in the lead with 60-something percent. After Trump’s debate performance with Kamala Harris, I do not see Trump winning. If he does, it will be slight. I still would not ignore Trump. We did one time before, thinking our vote would be funny. Against Hillary Clinton, Trump’s win was not overwhelming. Indeed, he slipped by, by the narrowest of margins. Much of this occurred in three states which had an overwhelming vote for others which included Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, next door neighbor, etc. In all three states the percentages putting Trump over the top were

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This is not 2016 and Trump got one hell of a shellacking from Harris in the debate. She was smiling . . .

This forecast by Nate Silver seems to me to be a bit optimistic. about Trump in the lead with 60-something percent. After Trump’s debate performance with Kamala Harris, I do not see Trump winning. If he does, it will be slight.

I still would not ignore Trump. We did one time before, thinking our vote would be funny.

Against Hillary Clinton, Trump’s win was not overwhelming. Indeed, he slipped by, by the narrowest of margins. Much of this occurred in three states which had an overwhelming vote for others which included Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, next door neighbor, etc. In all three states the percentages putting Trump over the top were less than 1%. The numbers voting for others were 4 to 6 times higher than in 2012.

See the attached chart (below) I developed back then. I was nosey in 2016 as compared to 2012. In 2020, the vote for others returned to something close to normal. Sometimes when you tell a story, one’s reputation can make it more real than what it should be. Even if it is close and Trump wins, Nate’s reputation will suffer for his forecast.

Weeks before the election in 2016 we (Michigan) knew we were in trouble. Those who voted for others did not. They thought it was funny. The Michigan Dems were not answered with help. They were ignored. Then too, I wonder whether those who voted for “others” regret voting for pets, cartoon characters, etc. Just like stepping in dog feces, no matter how hard you scrapped your shoe against a Chicago city curb, you can never get it completely off the sole of your shoe. Even if you succeed in getting some of it off. the smell lingers.

Here we are in 2024 dealing with the same feces on our shoes and the smell lingers in the form of Trump.

The below partial article is taken from Washington Monthly (Bill Scher). The depicted Excel spread sheet belongs to myself.

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Probabilistic Election Forecasts Are Stupid and You Should Not Look at Them, Washington Monthly.

Some and not many Pundits are Optimistic Trump Will Win, I am Not.

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