by IN 2020 the US homicide rate increased by 29% the largest percent increase on record. There are different theories of the cause. Some are related to Covid 19 with isolation (not lockdowns there were not lockdowns in the USA) causing increased stress and domestic disputes. The George Floyd associated conflict between police and those they are sworn to protect and serve could have led police to quietly quit (there is evidence of this in the reduced number of citations issued -in particular a huge reduction in San Francisco) or mistrust of the police might have led to less cooperation with the police and more people taking matters into their own hands. The enormous unemployment rate might have lead to murder even though the CARES act prevented a huge
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IN 2020 the US homicide rate increased by 29% the largest percent increase on record. There are different theories of the cause. Some are related to Covid 19 with isolation (not lockdowns there were not lockdowns in the USA) causing increased stress and domestic disputes. The George Floyd associated conflict between police and those they are sworn to protect and serve could have led police to quietly quit (there is evidence of this in the reduced number of citations issued -in particular a huge reduction in San Francisco) or mistrust of the police might have led to less cooperation with the police and more people taking matters into their own hands. The enormous unemployment rate might have lead to murder even though the CARES act prevented a huge increase in poverty (the problem would be related to idleness and possible loss of self esteem which made especially little sense then). In particular social isolation, unemployment, and boredom might explain the huge increase in drinking – alcohol is involved in about half of violent crimes. This is relatively solid evidence related to violence. The most recent previous increase in drinking occurred in 1968 — at the beginning of the huge mid 60s to early 90s increase in crime.
In 2021 there was a further increase followed by a rapid decline (possibly the most rapid on record). It is true that the FBI has to extrapolate from the “15,726 of 18,888 participating law enforcement agencies submitted crime data to the FBI for 2022” to those which did not submit data. This reduces precision but does not introduce biases.
I can find estimates of the nationwide rate only through 2022 (come on it is September). If anyone can find the 2023 number please comment (I will be humiliated and informed). The Council on Criminal Justice has data up to the last half year from “39 American cities that have consistently reported monthly data over the past six years.” They show a lower homicide rate in the first half of 2024 than in the first half of 2019
If the 39 cities are representative, then the wave of homicides has ended.
I look at homicide, because homicide is almost always detected. For other violent crimes, FBI uniform crime reports data on reported crimes might not reflect the number of crimes actually committed. For what it’s worth, there is a very similar pattern for reported violent crime in general.
Of course, the US public thinks that crime has increased — this is a consistent pattern also during the years and years of decreased crime from 1990 through 2000. Also, they consider the president (and possibly the vice president responsible). This makes no sense – anticrime policy has only a partial effect on crime and is almost entirely state and local not federal. I do not blame Donald Trump for the huge increase in 2020 (and you know that I want to).
In 2024 it is very alarming that the total amazing misperception of the change in the homicide and general violent crime rates from January 2021 to the present might lead to Donald Trump being elected. Also, that his claim that the FBI has a left-wing bias was not considered proof of insanity and grounds to vote for the other candidate (almost any other candidate).