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Initial jobless claims still very positive, especially YoY

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Initial claims still very positive, especially YoY  – by New Deal democrat Before I get to this morning’s personal income and spending report, let’s get the latest weekly update to jobless claims out of the way. New jobless claims rose 13,000 to 215,000, while the four-week moving average declined -3,000 to 212,500. Continuing claims, contrarily, rose 45,000 to 1.905 million, their second highest reading in over 2 years (but remains extremely low compared with the 40 years before the pandemic): On the more important YoY basis for forecasting purposes, both the one week and four week average of new claims are down -2.7%, while continuing claims are up 10.9%, which remains better than almost all readings in the past 10 months:

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Initial claims still very positive, especially YoY

 – by New Deal democrat

Before I get to this morning’s personal income and spending report, let’s get the latest weekly update to jobless claims out of the way.

New jobless claims rose 13,000 to 215,000, while the four-week moving average declined -3,000 to 212,500. Continuing claims, contrarily, rose 45,000 to 1.905 million, their second highest reading in over 2 years (but remains extremely low compared with the 40 years before the pandemic):

Initial jobless claims still very positive, especially YoY

On the more important YoY basis for forecasting purposes, both the one week and four week average of new claims are down -2.7%, while continuing claims are up 10.9%, which remains better than almost all readings in the past 10 months:

Initial jobless claims still very positive, especially YoY

Finally, for purposes of forecasting the unemployment rate, the February average of claims continues to suggest that the unemployment rate will remain steady or decline in the next few months:

Initial jobless claims still very positive, especially YoY

The Sahm rule for recessions is not going to be triggered in the nearest future.

The good news on jobless claims continues, Angry Bear, by New Deal democrat

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