The Angry Bear

– by R.J. Sigmund Most of the demographic indicators of this summer’s Covid wave continued to recede rapidly in this week’s reports, and wastewater levels of the virus, the most definitive indicator of infections, have fallen to “low.” Among the CDC’s “early indicators” “test positivity”, or the percentage of tests for Covid that were positive, fell to 7.7% during the week ending October 5th, down from 9.5% positive during the week ending...

– by New Deal democrat A periodic reminder, real retail sales is one of my favorite economic indicators, because it tells us so much about the state of the consumer, and since consumption leads employment, it is a short leading indicator for that as well. In September retail sales in August rose 0.4% on a nominal basis. After adjusting for inflation, they rose 0.3%. The below graph norms both real retail sales (dark blue) and the similar...

Current Release October 17, 2024 Market Groups The major market groups posted mixed results in September. Among consumer goods, the production of durables decreased 0.7 percent. In contrast, the index for nondurables increased 0.5 percent, boosted by a 1.7 percent increase in energy goods. The output of business equipment declined 3.5 percent in September, weighed down by a sharp drop of 14.2 percent in the production of transit equipment...

 – by New Deal democrat Before I get to the (relatively) good news in retail sales, let’s take a look at the bad news from industrial production. On a monthly basis, production declined -0.3%. Manufacturing declined -0.4%. There were also downward revisions to last month. Both of these continue to slowly fade from their 2022 peak: On a YoY basis, production is down -0.6%, and manufacturing production is down -0.4%: For all intents...

by Steve Roth Originally posted at Wealth Economics Please excuse two paragraphs of a personal insight up front here. I think it’s pertinent. What follows are some serious research results, just out, that I think are hugely revealing about the ways of the (economic) world. I had a visit from an old and good friend recently: dad of one of my kids’ best childhood friends, and in more recent years a business/investing colleague. We both had...

I will try to say more about this, but for now: You might have missed it, but in August, Gorsuch published a book titled Over Ruled, which argues that there are too many laws on the books and that government officials at both the federal and state levels are enforcing them in increasingly unpredictable and unjust ways. The argument is not exactly original, but it takes on a different force when it comes from a sitting Supreme Court justice....

I am very tired as of late. Having been working with our old server partner and getting prepared to go to a new server partner. The new partner appears to be more astute. Also working with our advertising partners to get better ads. Got a meeting with the VA next week to discuss my two years in and out of Lejeune and the water. Going through rehab the second time for my back. before they cut into it. Upcoming operation. Physical therapy going on...

by Mark Joseph Stern Not going to say too much as I said my piece here; “Looks Like SCOTUS May Hold for the US on “Ghost” Guns, Angry Bear by Amy Howe at SCOTUS Blog. To sum it up, there is no defense for bullet spewing weapons not having serial numbers. Slate Jurisprudence Lawyers with bad arguments in defense of terrible causes are on a winning streak at this Supreme Court. The conservative supermajority often seems committed to laundering...

A conversation on providing for disability. The right to work as an equal also extends to the disabled. Contingencies are made for the disabled and is a key factor in having the ability to provide for themselves. Doors that open with the touch of a button. Wheelchair accommodations to go up a step or a set of stairs. Access to the use of bathrooms. Adequate desks and chairs. In which case if not available, society takes away the ability of...

– by New Deal democrat The drought in new economic data continues through today. We’ll make up for it all at once tomorrow with jobless claims, retail sales, and industrial production. In the meantime, last week I noted that Hurricane Helene’s impact in Florida and North Carolina was a big part of the reason for the spike in initial claims. Let me follow that up further today. To begin with, State by State initial claims data is only available...