The Angry Bear

Strong upward revisions push real personal income to new highs, put 2 important coincident indicators firmly in expansion territory  – by New Deal democrat Almost all of the news in this morning’s release for personal income and spending for January was positive. Nominally, personal income rose +0.6% and personal spending rose 1.8%. The deflator also rose +0.6%, making real personal income close to unchanged, and real spending (after...

The “gold standard” of jobs data shows a strong rebound in Q3 2022  – by New Deal democrat The preliminary estimate for the Q3 2022 QCEW was released yesterday. Although the monthly nonfarm payrolls report gets all the glory, it is only a survey. The QCEW is an actual census of the roughly 95% of all businesses paying unemployment insurance. It is reported with about a 6 month delay, and is not seasonally adjusted. The bottom line is while...

Initial claims continue recent excellent streak  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued their recent excellent reports, as there were only 192,000 new claims, down -3,000 from the week before, and close to their 50+ year lows of last March and April. The 4 week average increased 1,500 to 191,250, still an excellent number. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1,654,000, still in their slightly elevated...

There are two good articles to be read here. Most is drawn from The Atlantic article and the other from The Detroit News. Some of the information is pulled from other articles to which the links are in the article. EVs may be the wave of the future. I think we will need better technology to power the electric vehicles and also lessen the energy pollution needed to make them. “Electric Vehicles Are a Status Symbol Now,” The Atlantic, Andrew...

For awhile, my favorite radio show was This American Life. And one of my favorite voices on the show was Sarah Vowell. Her nasal, girlish tone belied a sophisticated intelligence and wicked sense of humor.I recently read “The wordy shipmates” by Sarah Vowell. It’s basically her idiosyncratic take on the Puritans who colonized Massachusetts at Plymouth and Massachusetts Bay. While they were escaping England because of religious persecution, the...

Consumption leads jobs: a comprehensive update  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I encountered a post on Seeking Alpha from the chief economist for a major trading platform, who probably makes in a week the amount I pocket in an entire year from my writing, who wrote: “if one loses one’s job, one likely spends less. If one witnesses colleagues lose their jobs, one may cut back on spending. If extended family members lose their jobs,...

The recent train derailment in Ohio of a Norfolk Southern train has me thinking. As this accident relates to our social order, there is just so many paths, perspectives and questions one can dive into. I almost could not decide what direction to address it all from. We have the capitalism/free market angle. Is this disaster an example of market failure? Is this government failure? Does this disprove the “too much government” argument? You know,...

The long leading forecast through year end 2023 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat Normally in late January I update my top-line long leading forecast for the entire year. A little late this year, it is now up at Seeking Alpha. If you follow my updates on the leading indicators, the result isn’t very surprising. The twist is that recessions are almost always much shorter than expansions, so the long leading indicators turn up on a...

I have known Alan Collinge of Student Loan Justice for multiple years now. He has been prompting some type of relief for those who will never be able to payback these loans or are in default. Portfolio-by-Age.xls (live.com) as taken from here: Federal Student Loan Portfolio | Federal Student Aid The information in the chart above is from EOY 2020 and the Federal Student Loan Portfolio, Federal Student Aid, “Portfolio by Age” The General Link and...