The Angry Bear

by Joseph Joyce “The Sources of International Investment Income in Emerging Market Economies” The Review of International Economics has published my paper on “The Sources of International Investment Income in Emerging Market Economies” in its latest issue. You can find the paper here, and this is the abstract: We investigate international investment income flows in 26 emerging market countries during the period of 1998–2015. Net investment...

Steve Hutkins at Save The Post Office, “How the postal reform bill may help the Postal Service slow down the mail” In August 1970, Title 39, aka the Postal Reorganization Act, created the Postal Service. The first section, 39 U.S. Code § 101, is entitled “Postal Policy.” It’s just over 400 words long, but it is probably the most frequently quoted passage in the history of postal legislation. It’s often cited in litigation, academic articles, and...

Real wages decrease sharply – at least, if you include used vehicle prices As I pointed out yesterday, the big increase in inflation over the past few months has made the YoY change in real wages for nonsupervisory workers negative. Let’s take a little closer look. Here is a graph of wages for nonsupervisory workers taking overall inflation into account, normed to 100 as of January 1973 (its peak previous to the pandemic): Wages had...

by Joseph Joyce Will A Rise in Interest Rates Lead to a New Debt Crisis? The question of when the Federal Reserve will begin to reverse its loose policy stance continues to be a topic of widespread speculation. At last month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, its members showed a willingness to cut back on asset purchases in 2022 and to raise interest rates in 2023 but kept monetary policy on its current setting due to slower...

Socially Ambivalent Labour Time: TSV part 3, chapter 20 Marx’s discussion of socially necessary labour time in Chapter 20 of Theories of Surplus Value is notable for the fact that it comes immediately before Chapter 21, where he doesn’t mention socially necessary labour time (but the concept lingers just below the surface in the latter chapter). He talked about how piece-work is actually a kind of time work in which the piece rate is set according...

by David Zetland Why we’re failing to stop climate chaos Climate chaos (CC) is the largest threat to our collective prosperity. (Water scarcity, biodiversity loss, increasing vulnerability to viruses and bacteria are a few more.) But “we” (citizens of rich countries) are having a hardER time understanding and addressing CC due to a few strategic mistakes, i.e., Most discussions of impacts focus on 2100, which is too far away from our time...

Consumer inflation rises the most in over a decade; will it draw the Fed’s attention? Let me start my take on this month’s inflation report with my concluding remarks last month: “this is not a big deal if it only lasts another month or two. But if the trend continues longer than that, it will begin to impact consumer spending, and it will get the Fed’s attention.” Well, it has definitely lasted another month. In spades.  The 0.9% increase in...

Socially Ambivalent Labour Time IV: TSV part 2, chapters 8, 9, 16, and 17 Nothing notable in these chapters. Chapter 8: Poor quality land requires more labour time than socially necessary (which is to say the average labour time required to produce a given output). Chapter 9: Socially necessary labour time is permanently established in nature, in industry it is constantly disappearing. Chapter 16: The value of labour is established by the...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for July 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. To the surprise of many, interest rates have gone down in the past few weeks, to the point where they have resumed being a positive in my long leading model. Meanwhile, as the “delta wave” of COVID builds in the unvaccinated States, once again the pandemic will begin to assert control over the economy, at least as to...