The Angry Bear

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. After many weeks of stability, there is some turmoil – in opposing directions – among the short leading indicators in particular. It is an indication of the bifurcated nature of the economy at present, where portions of the service sector have a pandemic-sized hole blown in them, while  manufacturing is barreling...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. After many weeks of stability, there is some turmoil – in opposing directions – among the short leading indicators in particular. It is an indication of the bifurcated nature of the economy at present, where portions of the service sector have a pandemic-sized hole blown in them, while  manufacturing is barreling...

Is China Now Number One?  Actually I think focusing on such questions can be a not very useful exercise, but here I am asking it anyway.  As it is, indeed the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) is indeed Number One on a number of important grounds, although probably the bottom line is that the world is now dominated by a G2, the US and China, with it unclear which is Number One overall.  What has happened is that up until quite recently there was no...

Is China Now Number One?  Actually I think focusing on such questions can be a not very useful exercise, but here I am asking it anyway.  As it is, indeed the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) is indeed Number One on a number of important grounds, although probably the bottom line is that the world is now dominated by a G2, the US and China, with it unclear which is Number One overall.  What has happened is that up until quite recently there was no...

Some Information Both Dan and I have been waylaid by Medical issues. Both of us are slowly coming out of what plagues us. We both are a little bit slow in responding. Eric had Covid and is better now. Dan did talk to the site people who run the servers and also program our capabilities which are on going. He brought to light some of the issues I have read on site and were indirectly pointed out to me. Some answers: Site Programming...

Some Information Both Dan and I have been waylaid by Medical issues. Both of us are slowly coming out of what plagues us. We both are a little bit slow in responding. Eric had Covid and is better now. Dan did talk to the site people who run the servers and also program our capabilities which are on going. He brought to light some of the issues I have read on site and were indirectly pointed out to me. Some answers: Site Programming...

Real personal spending declines in December, while income rises; not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession This morning’s report on personal income and spending for December reversed the pattern we have seen all during the second half of 2020. After rebounding strongly for 6 months, real personal spending (blue in the graph below) declined for the month by -0.2%, and is 3.6% below its February peak. Meanwhile real personal income (red),...

Real personal spending declines in December, while income rises; not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession This morning’s report on personal income and spending for December reversed the pattern we have seen all during the second half of 2020. After rebounding strongly for 6 months, real personal spending (blue in the graph below) declined for the month by -0.2%, and is 3.6% below its February peak. Meanwhile real personal income (red),...

First, I want to discuss the evidence on effectiveness of the first dose of the BioNTech Pfizer Covid 19 vaccine. The data from few person – weeks of the phase III trial suggested that one dose was highly effective after 10 days. This is based on 4 of roughly 40 cases in vaccinated participants. Much larger samples from the not randomized controlled just by the general population experience in Israel suggest lower effectiveness. I think the...

First, I want to discuss the evidence on effectiveness of the first dose of the BioNTech Pfizer Covid 19 vaccine. The data from few person – weeks of the phase III trial suggested that one dose was highly effective after 10 days. This is based on 4 of roughly 40 cases in vaccinated participants. Much larger samples from the not randomized controlled just by the general population experience in Israel suggest lower effectiveness. I think the...