The Angry Bear

Coronavirus dashboard for August 10: some good news to balance the bad Total US cases:  5,060,880 Average last 7 days: 52,393/day Total US deaths: 154,947 Average last 7 days: 1,045/day Source: COVID Tracking Project Let’s take a look at some good news as well as continued bad news today. First, the bad news. Here are the top 10 States for coronavirus infections: And here are the top 10 States for deaths: Note that with the exception...

July inflation consistent with early recovery; no compelling evidence of wage deflation Yesterday morning July consumer prices were reported to have increased 0.6% for the second month in a row (as did core inflation, ex-food and energy): As a result, YoY inflation has increased to 1.0%: The widespread price increases are signs of increased demand, which in these circumstances is a good thing. In the past, deflationary recessions, most notably...

Donald J. Harris And His Daughter Kamala Harris  Now the Democratic candidate for Vice President of the United States, a historic pick, no matter what one thinks of her, and I know quite a few people on the left and Dems more generally who are not fans of hers, although many observers think she may be the strongest VP candidate for Biden to beat Trump and Pence, and I am looking forward to her tearing current VP Pence to shreds in their debate. Anyway,...

Site Plan. Escape Tampa Bay Village, Tiny Homes, Dan Dobrowolski A recently purchased, rundown, 1 acre mobile home park is redesigned by a tiny house manufacturer into a site for tiny homes. Dan Dobrowolski of “Escape” has been building tiny houses and giving them a place to go for a while. Now during the Corona epidemic Dan Dobrowolski has opened a new development and naming it Escape Tampa Bay Village. It is a real demonstration of how tiny houses have...

In the second quarter, the federal deficit leaped from under 5% of GDP last year to near 15% now. This is new record compared to the prior record of almost 10% of GDP that Obama inherited from Bush Yes, falling nominal GDP played a role, but a weak economy always plays a role in setting new record deficits.  But in considering what new stimulus Washington comes up with it will serve us well to remember that the new base line already starts at 15% of GDP....

Apropos my previous post, a new NBER paper by Casado et al estimates the effect of pandemic unemployment benefits on local spending: The FPUC supplement to unemployment insurance of $600 ended at the end of July 2020. Prior to its expiration, the average weekly benefit paid was $812, which would fall to $257, implying a decline in the replacement rate of 68%. The replacement rate was roughly 1.25 in the latest data, so the new replacement rate would be...

In a semi-rational world, Trump and Senate Republicans would have agreed to a reasonably generous economic relief package along the lines of the HEROES Act approved by the House.  Without an extension of the special pandemic unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments, a humanitarian disaster is inevitable and a macroeconomic disaster a real possibility.  Trump’s executive orders are grossly inadequate to prevent mass homelessness and...

Did July’s headline jobs number miss business closures, and so overcount job gains? A few issues arose with regard to last Friday’s jobs number; in particular, the effect of government jobs in the form of Census and teaching jobs, whether seasonal adjustments are unhelpful at this time; and whether the birth/death model used by the BLS has undercounted job losses (due to increased non-reporting by closed businesses). I’m going to examine this in two...

Mark Jamison’s commentary on USPO matters have been featured at Angry Bear Blog a number of times over the years. A retired postmaster, Mark Jamison serves as an advisor, resident guru, and a regular contributor to Save the Post Office. Mark’s previous posts concerning the USPO can be found here at “Save The Post Office” or by doing the search function at Angry Bear.  Mark can also be contacted on USPO matters [email protected] ****************** A...