The Angry Bear

On March 15, 2019 a gunman opened fire on worshipers at two Christchurch, New Zealand mosques, killing 50 and wounding around as many. Survivors of gunshot wounds often have traumatic injuries that require multiple surgeries and leave them severely disabled for life. Before embarking on his rampage, the alleged gunman broadcast over the internet a “manifesto” outlining the motive for his deed. In his manifesto, the alleged perpetrator claimed to have...

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 30 – December 4 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There is more evidence of weakening of the coincident data, probably as the result of the completely out of control pandemic. Some of that is probably due to new restrictions, some to winter weather causing people to curtail some activities, and some (probably most of all) to people becoming much more...

November jobs report: the “least positive” report since April HEADLINES: 245,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total about 55% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. The alternate and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a loss of -74,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.U3 unemployment rate fell -0.2% from 6.9% to 6.7%, compared with the January low of 3.5%.U6...

Fact: Contrary to what President Trump claims, the Postal Service can’t solve its financial problems by raising “the price of a package by approximately four times.” Steve Hutkins at Save The Post Office discusses the financial issues facing the United States Postal Service and why the Postal Regulatory Commission  new plans to increase prices may be problematic. By no means is this a new topic. It has been brought up repeatedly by members of...

by New Deal democrat First look at the 2021 economy: housing As I’ve pointed out for years, housing is a long leading indicator. It can give us a decent read on the direction of the overall economy 12 to 18 months out. So the strength in the housing market in the past 6 months has been a powerful positive omen for the economy going into 2021. Yesterday residential construction spending for October was reported and continued that string of very positive...

November data starts out strong with a very positive ISM manufacturing index The first November data point, the ISM manufacturing index, was reported this morning, and while it declined from last month, it remained very strongly positive. The overall index declined from 59.3 to 57.5, and the more forward-looking new orders index declined from 67.9 to 65.1: Since any reading above 50, however, indicates expansion, these were positive readings. The...

Coronavirus dashboard for November 3 Total US confirmed infections: 13,383,320* Average US infections last 7 days: 162,365 (vs. latest low of 34,354 on Sept 12) Total US deaths: 266,873 Average US deaths last 7 days: 1,430 (vs. latest low of 701 on Oct 16) *I suspect the real number is 18-19,000,000, or between 5 to 6% of the total US population Source: COVID Tracking Project Infections are out of control over much, if not most, of the country. North...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha A little later than usual, my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there has been no big deterioration, there are further slight signs that the out of control pandemic is taking a toll on the recovery that has been underway for the past 6 months. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on the economy, and reward me a little...

Unprecedented  It occurs to me that our current president has engaged in a rather large number of actions that are unprecedented by any other president, as well as some only rarely happening and not for a long time, many of which for nearly all other politicians would make them viewed as simply unacceptable for being a president.  However, with him, there have been so many that people simply ignore most of them as being, “Oh well, there goes Trump again...