The Angry Bear

b7 New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha A vignette…. Cognoscenti: “It’s impossible to forecast the economy.” Forecaster: “Actually, if you rely upon a tried and true series of long and short leading indicators, you ca-“ Deity: “OH YEAH??? TRY FORECASTING THE GIANT SCREAMING METEOR OF DEATH!!!!!” G.S.M.O.D.: [BOOM! Forecaster [poking head through rubble]: “Y’know, Deity, that really wasn’t very fair.” Sigh. At least,...

This is a comment on “Is Anthony Fauci Really Our Truthteller-in-Chief?” by Kevin Drum. I will briefly summarize. Drum quotes from the latest press conference “Is there any evidence to suggest that, as with malaria, it might be used as a prophylaxis against COVID-19? DR. FAUCI: No. The answer is no.” later after Trump says hydroxychloroquine is the cure for Covid 19 Fauci changed his line to Q I would like Dr. Fauci, if you don’t mind, to follow up on...

The best US solution to the coronavirus pandemic: SHUT.IT.DOWN — two weeks of China + one month of South Korea For the last few weeks, I have been screaming at the top of my lungs about “exponential growth.”   That’s because so few people realized the impact such growth could have in a pandemic, over the course of just a few months, even weeks.I first began thinking about this as soon as I read a Tweet by Trevor Bedford a month ago about how coronavirus...

I will never forgive Donald Trump for saying something exceedingly controversial with which I agree. I hate to say this but I agree with Trump and disagree with Fauci on hydroxychloroquine and Remdesivir. Update: But don’t mix the Hydroxychloroquine with Azithromycin“Azithromycin: (Major) Avoid coadministration of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin.” Thanks Ted Lieu I will discuss hydroxychloroquine here because there is no legal issue. It can be...

I am sure by now many of you have read what the gov is and is not doing for us. The later is more prevalent as can be witnessed in the stimuli being offered. I am going to ask you to pay attention to the last item on ACA Healthcare Insurance. Whether you qualified or not in the past, you may be eligible for assistance now. I have broken this out into 4-points of which many of us might find ourselves. If you questions, PLEASE ASK, I will try to answer. The...

I am still trying to wrap my head around the coronavirus disaster.  Here is some current thinking . . . The immediate cause of the economic slowdown is a collapse in both demand and supply due to social isolation.  This will have at least two knock-on effects.  First, the initial collapse in economic activity will be magnified by a traditional demand multiplier effect.  Second, the collapse in economic activity will lead to widespread formal and informal...

Some Ideas for Pandeminomics The starting point for all of what follows is that government, if it has the will to act, is currently in the driver’s seat.  Much of the private sector is facing a terrifying confluence of crunches: supply breakdowns, demand falling off a cliff for many goods and services, and a looming shortfall of liquidity to service debt.  A wide swath of business is on the ropes and needs a rescue from government.  This puts the power...

The Coronavirus Recession has begun This morning we got two reports that confirm the beginning of the Coronavirus Recession: initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Initial claims rose to 281,000 one week ago. They are now 15% higher than their low last April, as well as almost 15% higher preliminarily on a monthly basis than last March, and the 4 week moving average is just shy of 5% higher than one year ago.  This meets two...

It is a start, maybe. Remdesivir is being touted as a potentially more effective drug. The Chinese had reported there were several pharmaceuticals which appeared to work also and in particular drugs for malaria, Chloroquine and HydoxyChloroquine. I had mentioned this earlier in the week in a post and then again in two separate comments. One small clinical test (preliminary trial with 24 -36 patients) in France had positive results recently as reported...