The Angry Bear

Housing: prices follow sales, February 2020 edition One of the consistent things I have written about the housing market for going on 10 years is that interest rates lead sales, and sales in turn lead prices. Last week with the continued increase in housing starts and permits we got further proof of the former, and this morning with the release of several house price indexes, we got further proof of the latter. Below I show the FHFA house price index...

(Dan here…one of David Zetland’s students Lenaide writes on groundwater…a reminder of what also matters during this heated political climate, and from a younger generation) A threatened groundwater source Lenaide writes* Imagine living in a city located on top of the largest groundwater source and longest river in France, but to also have both of these sources be under the threat of scarcity. That it is the current state of Beaugency, France. Beaugency...

The Incompetency of this man comes to light in a potentially catastrophic period. He instills fear rather than confidence. “White House Moves To Screen Scientists’ Statements On Coronavirus As fears grow of a politicized White House response to the coronavirus outbreak, the White House has placed Vice President Mike Pence in charge of messaging about the virus, the New York Times reported Thursday.” “Pence, who Trump said Wednesday night would be the...

by New Deal democrat The impact of coronavirus on my slowdown vs. recession forecast  For roughly the last half year, my forecast has been that a slowdown without a recession was the most likely scenario, *IF* the economy were left to its own devices. Well, given the horror scenarios possible with the coronavirus outbreak, the economy is certainly not being “left to its own devices.” I took a look at how that intersects with my forecast over at Seeking...

Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: February 22, 1869 On February 22, the Senate took up the revisions that the House of Representatives had made to their proposals from one week prior. The House had struck from the Senate’s version, as sent to the House, the section extending the protections of the Amendment to qualifications for office, as well as the companion Amendment reforming the Electoral College. Senator Stewart (Republican from Nevada)...

Who Wins Prairie du Chien Wins the White House That would be Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin, whose French name means “prairie dog,” and which is located where the Wisconsin River empties into the Mississippi River, third oldest town in the state founded by Europeans (the French) after Green Baay (originallly Fort Nicolet) and Portage, also located at crucial spots long used by the Native Indians for river transport.  It is also the county seat for Crawford...

VA-Like Negotiations on Insulin Prices Could Save Medicare Billions, MedPage Today, Zeena Nackerdien, February 21, 2020 I am going to dispense with the reasoning dissing the increased pricing of Insulin and go straight to a pricing strategy. Suffice it to say, the various versions developed of Insulin do not justify the pricing increases seen today. Recently, Philip Longman (“Best Care Anywhere”) was advocating for Medicare pricing for everyone using...

by Joseph Joyce The Long Reach of U.S. Monetary Policy The spillover of U.S. monetary policy on foreign economies has become an active area of research. Analysts seek to identify the channels of transmission between the policy stance of the Federal Reserve and foreign interest rates and credit extension. The usual account is that an expansionary Fed policy leads to capital outflows and an appreciation of foreign currencies as investors seek higher yields...