The Angry Bear

by New Deal democrat Q3 2018 update: “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator” One of the methods I incorporate into my long leading indicators is the “Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator.” This is something I first read about in 2007, when the eponymous Paul Kasriel, then of Northern Trust and now of Legacy Private Trust Co., wrote that it forecast a recession within the next year. Needless to say, his call was on the mark! The indicator consists of a...

When the stock market headlines the political blogs . . . Here is a graph I saw on Digby’s blog this morning: There was also a highly-recommended, heavily-commented piece at Daily Kos. Here’s a pro tip: when you see a daily stock market move leading the political blogs, it’s a sign of a bottom, not a  top. That’s because it’s a sign of emotion, and it means that amateurs are paying close attention. By the time that happens, the big move is over,...

A follow-up on the reasons for prime age labor force non-participation Here is something interesting I found in an article by staffers at the Kansas City Fed a couple of weeks ago. They broke down the 25-54 prime age labor force participation group for men into 10 year slices, by education, and by reason for not participating in the labor force. They focused on men, because including women confounds the results by the secular societal change whereby...

An update on yield curve dynamics So I submitted this wonderful piece to Seeking Alpha Tuesday morning, and figured I would just link to it today. But as in the best laid plans of mice and men, somehow it reverted to a draft without ever being reviewed by the site’s editors, which means it isn’t up there yet and there is no big economic news today. Sigh.  So in the meantime, consider this …. The bond market is behaving in totally typical fashion in...

“The Opportunity Cost of Socialism” Why is the Council of Economic Advisers producing party political propaganda for the GOP? As many folks have pointed out, the “report” is rather bizarre. My favorite part is Figure 1, which summarizes Milton Friedman’s argument that people spending “their own money” are “more careful how much to spend and on what the money is spent.” This, of course begs the question of how that money came to be defined as “their...

New home sales bombed in September Needless to say, this morning’s report on new home sales was another big miss in the housing sector. Not only were sales a new 12 month low, they were the lowest in nearly 2 years, and are off over -150,000 from their peak 10 months ago: Typically new home sales are down about -200,000 when a recession starts. That median prices have fallen in sync with sales, and not with their typical lag: makes me...

How To Get Distracted From What Is Most Important Of course as the midterm elections are nearly upon us, there is a rising cacophony of issues bubbling up, especially as Donald Trump attempts to excite his extremist base with base fears, while trying to distract most voters from threats by GOPs in Congress to cut the social safety net.  But some of the the new issues bubbling up are really more important than others. So we are now going to have a...

[embedded content] If you have not seen this yet, take a moment and listen. It kind of makes you feel good about being a Democrat. 7th District Virginia’s Elissa Slotkin, Abigail Spanberger. Like Esquire’s Charles Pierce tells us, it kind of reminds you of the Ali-Terrell fight—What’s my name, motherf***er? Abigail took teabagger Dave Brat to the wood shed and just tore him apart. It is a great take down. HT to EMichael...