The Angry Bear

House prices continue to rise, exacerbating unaffordability Now that we have both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price reports for June, let’s take a look at how they fit in to the overall market, and in particular on housing affordability. To begin with, let me repeat the general formula for the housing market: interest rates lead sales sales lead prices prices lead inventory Turning to the reports, in June, the 20-city Case Shiller house price index...

Mohammed Bin Salman Of Saudi Arabia In Trouble? This is what Juan Cole reports today from several sources.  Supposedly, as I reported here earlier, even though it was supposedly denied, the Saudi ARAMCO IPO deal is off.  The new reports have it that the final decision on this came from King Salman of Saudi Arabia, the father of the power hungry Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), who has been the main advocate of the IPO as part of his Vision 2030...

Marrying NAFTA and The TPP: The US-Mexico “Free Trade Agreement” I really am not sure where to begin with this latest farce, Trump’s announcement yesterday of a supposed US-Mexico Free Trade Agreement.  Of course there was the farce of him trying to make the announcement with a live phone call between him and outgoing Mexican President Pena-Nieto (to be replaced on Dec. 1 by leftist populist Obrador), which took awhile to get going.  There is the...

  by New Deal democrat Even if the yield curve tightens no further, there will be consequences next year Both my posts from yesterday morning and today dealt with two aspects of the implications of the Fed raising rates. The unifying idea beneath both of them is that the Fed’s raising rates is already having consequences in the economy; consequences that are likely to be amplified should the Fed continue on its present path. And we have a pretty good...

What the compressed yield curve means for employment Aside from the threat of a recession down the road, is there cause for concern by economic Progressives in the fact that the yield curve has tightened (i.e., the difference in interest rates between long and short term bonds has become very small)? In a word, Yes. Four times during the 1980s and 1990s the difference in the interest yield between 2 and 10 year treasury bonds got about as low as it is...

Are We Alone In The Galaxy (Or Maybe Even The Universe?) In 1938 Orson Welles put on a radio show in New York City that dramatized the famous novel by H.G. Wells, _The War of the Worlds_. This novel is about an invasion of Planet Earth by intelligent beings from Planet Mars, with this invasion just  barely being defeated.  Several movies have been made of this famous novel, probably the first to present this now long-running sc-fi theme of our planet...

A new risk at the Fed: Donald Trump’s power to fire Fed Governors Calling it “breaking with decades of presidential convention,” the New York Times reported last week on Donald Trump’s open criticism of recent Federal Reserve rate hikes. quoting him as telling donors at a  fund-raiser in the Hamptons: that he had expected Mr. Powell to adhere to an easy-money monetary policy, by keeping interest rates low, when he nominated Mr. Powell in November to...

Conversable Economist Tim Taylor presents a chart representing spending over a life time on Education and Skills in America. “Figure 4 (depicted) is from a report by the White House Council of Economic Advisers, titled “Addressing America’s Reskilling Challenge” (July 2018). The blue area shows public education spending, which is high during K-12 years, but the average spending per person drops off during college years. After all, many people don’t attend...

 by New Deal democrat New and existing home sales for July 2018: UPDATED with link Both new and existing home sales for July came in low. New home sales were at a 9 month low, and existing home sales at a 2 year low: That’s enough for both series to be scored as negatives, although the new home sales downturn could easily be revised away, and existing home sales are the least important of all housing indicators. I’ll have a full analysis of all home...