The Angry Bear

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha I neglected to post this yesterday…. My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.  The forecasts remain as they have been recently, but there are several developments in the long leading range. As usual, clicking over and reading brings you fully up to date, and rewards me a little bit for my efforts.

for Downplaying Brain Injuries Suffered from Iranian Attack, CNN, Veronica Stracqualursi, January 2020 It is bad enough for trump to have evaded the draft multiple times giving heel spurs as a reason for doing so; but here we are and now, trump can tell us what is a serious injury and what is not. If he would just shut up, which will not happen, things might settle down. As it goes, anything to deflect and get the attention off of impeachment....

Local Climate Policy Run Amok, Bellingham Edition Earlier this month the New York Times ran a story about Bellingham, Washington, a picturesque town that looks out across Puget Sound to the San Juan Islands. Bellingham is home to Western Washington University, but rational thought is in short supply when it comes to climate activism. What got the country’s attention is a proposal before the city council to require all homeowners to switch from natural...

On the road Today  (Dan here….Jan. 23) is a traveling day, so no detailed posting. This morning’s initial jobless claims were in line with the range over the past two years. There has been virtually no change YoY. This negatives any imminent recession fears. Yesterday’s existing home sales, though touted as “the best in nearly two years,” just continue the baseline that this metric has been in since late 2015, with the exception of the 2018 decline. Of...

by New Deal democrat The producer vs. consumer sectors of the economy: a comparison I have a post up at Seeking Alpha, comparing current conditions on the producer side of the economy vs. the consumer side. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to date on the “nowcast,” and helps put a $ or two in my pocket.

Why negative transportation indexes don’t support a recession call Every month for at least the past half year there is a spate of bearish economic commentary that relies upon one or both of two metrics: AAR rail carloads and/or the Cass Freight Index. I have a post up at Seeking Alpha showing why the first measure is not a representative slice of transport as a whole, and the second has a history of being very volatile and with a slew of negative...

Guns and Commas I am glad that the large pro-gun rights rally in Richmond on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day ended without any violence as had been threatened by some people around the US.  That is nice, but it does not end the unpleasant situation legal situation that has arisen here in Virginia.  As of now 93 jurisdictions, mostly counties, have declared themselves “gun sanctuaries” where any gun control legislation passed by the Virginia government will...

I have begun to keep a daily journal on my thoughts and feelings in the lead-up to my diagnosis and treatment of cancer, a dedifferentiated lymphosarcoma in the groin area.  Sharing these thoughts was not my first or second impulse until Bill encouraged me to keep notes of my progress and publish  them (from the  point of view on our medical system and the more personal journey in considering my own mortality and experience). I have a second surgery...

(Dan here,,,at lunch the other day a friend asked about the great prices for stocks.  This post by Thomas Palley caught my attention as a well written post on the nuances between stocks and finance and the 80% who do not own many stocks and the economy of losers and winners. ) by Thomas Palley  (re-posted) A Stock Market Boom is Not the Basis of Shared Prosperity The US is currently enjoying another stock market boom which, if history is any guide,...