The Angry Bear

The Virginia Governor’s Race  I rarely talk directly about specific political races, but I live in Virginia where in less than a week there will be the most closely watched election in the nation for governor.  It is very close, and the Republican, Ed Gillespie, might well win, even though his Dem opponent, Ralph Northam, leads by narrow margins in most polls.  Sound familiar?  Sure, but why am I going on about this? It is because even the pro-Dem...

yes that intuition is difficult. I have an attempt. So 1% of GDP is tradable. Also consumption and total production fixed. Mars cuts tax from t to 0. So to invest more Mars runs a current account deficit — all cyberservice provided by earlhlings & martian cyberworkers go build capital. Note all the extra capital belongs to earthlings (I assumed martian savings are fixed). Paul Krugman finds intuition for the calculations of Jennifer Gravelle...

Barzani Out, Puigdemont In Belgium It seems that the two recent independence referenda have largely collapsed.  One was in Iraqi Kurdistan, with President Massound Barzani having it done with the eye that it would give him leverage in negotiations with the Iraqi central government.  That did not work, with the referendum triggering the central government to move to seize control of the oil producing areas the Kurds had controlled and quite a bit of...

This is just a conversation between two people of a similar age, looking at what happened, and what changed. Worthy of posting. esmensetoo: There are women who fear a loss of privilege and an increase in expectations, and economic responsibility, for women from “feminist” striving. “If she can do that maybe I’ll be asked and expected to do it too.” Plus, “working class,” as defined in many polls and studies does not necessarily mean “working women.”...

Some comments on the economic data from yesterday and this morning… 1. Personal income and spending. Real, inflation adjusted income was flat, while real spending was up +0.6%. Which means the personal saving rate declined to a new expansion low: We’ve had a steep decline in the savings rate in the past year.  That is something that, as the above graph shows, tends to happen in mid- to late expansion. The upshot is that consumers have less room...

From a story in Daily Mail: Terror suspects including jihadis returning from fighting in Syria are to be offered taxpayer-funded homes, counselling and help finding jobs to stop them carrying out attacks in Britain. The top-secret Government strategy, codenamed Operation Constrain, could even allow fanatics to jump to the top of council house waiting lists. Official documents seen by The Mail on Sunday reveal that up to 20,000 extremists previously...

A NAWRU proposal Marco Fioramanti and I have strongly criticized the European Commission DG EcFin Output Gap working Group estimates of output gaps. I have also written a lot here at angrybearblog This topic is very important, because the output gaps are used to calculate cyclically corrected budget balances which are regulated by the Stability and Growth Pact. The calculations determine dictates for fiscal policy of Euro bloc member states. Having...

Gimme shelter: the real cost of renting vs. homeownership What is the real cost of shelter? Over the last decade there has been lots of discussion of housing prices in isolation. Sometimes that discussion includes an inflation adjustment — which is problematic, since housing constitutes nearly 40% of the entire consumer price index, so in essence housing is being deflated largely by the cost of housing itself! From time to time there has also been a...

I have been getting quite a few alerts on proposed changes happening behind the scenes with the ACA. I also found a couple of new places with some intelligent writers who have explained things in greater depth than what I knew. The CMS is proposing a rule allowing states greater authority in defining the ACA. This comes in addition to Trump’s EO. The new rule would give states greater flexibility in: – Defining the ACA’s minimum essential benefits to...