Lars P. Syll

We can either let theory guide us in our attempt to estimate causal relationships from data … or we don’t let theory guide us. If we let theory guide us, our causal inferences will be ‘incredible’ because our theoretical knowledge is itself not certain … If we do not let theory guide us, we have no good reason to believe that our causal conclusions are true either of the experimental population or of other populations because we have no understanding of the mechanisms that are...

The problems we face when using instrumental variables (student stuff) .[embedded content]

Finding the cace (student stuff) .[embedded content]

Användandet av instrumentalvariabler används numera flitigt bland ekonomer och andra samhällsforskare. Inte minst när man vill försöka gå bakom statistikens ‘korrelationer’ och också säga något om ‘kausalitet.’ Tyvärr brister det ofta rejält i tolkningen av de resultat man får med hjälp av den vanligaste metoden som används för detta syfte — statistisk regressionsanalys. Ett exempel från skolområdet belyser detta väl. Ibland hävdas det bland skoldebattörer och politiker att...

Introduction to instrumental variables .[embedded content] Great presentation, but maybe Angrist  should also have pointed out the mistake many economists do when they use instrumental variables analysis and think that their basic identification assumption is empirically testable. It is not. And just swapping an assumption of residuals being uncorrelated with the independent variables with the assumption that the same residuals are uncorrelated with an...

Rösten vi aldrig glömmer .[embedded content] .[embedded content] .[embedded content] En av våra riktigt stora sångare — Svante Thuresson — har gått ur tiden. Musik som glömskan inte rår på. RIP.

Are your instrumental variables — really — relevant, exclusive, and exogenous? .[embedded content]

From association to causation .[embedded content]

‘Ideally controlled experiments’ tell us with certainty what causes what effects — but only given the right closures. Making appropriate extrapolations from (ideal, accidental, natural or quasi) experiments to different settings, populations or target systems, is not easy. “It works there” is no evidence for “it will work here”. Causes deduced in an experimental setting still have to show that they come with a transportability warrant to the target population/system. The...

Only the best is good enough . [embedded content] Bille August’s and Ingmar Bergman’s masterpiece. With breathtakingly beautiful music by Stefan Nilsson.