Lars P. Syll

Do economic models actually explain anything? One of the limitations with economics is the restricted possibility to perform experiments, forcing it to mainly rely on observational studies for knowledge of real-world economies. But still — the idea of performing laboratory experiments holds a firm grip of our wish to discover (causal) relationships between economic ‘variables.’ If we only could isolate and manipulate variables in controlled environments, we...

Peter Handke wins Nobel Prize Austrian writer Peter Handke — who helped pen the screenplay for Wim Wenders’ ‘Der Himmel über Berlin’ (‘Wings of Desire’) — has been awarded the 2019 Nobel Prize for literature. Great choice!  [embedded content]

At least since the time of Keynes’s famous critique of Tinbergen’s econometric methods, those of us in the social science community who have been impolite enough to dare to question the preferred methods and models applied in quantitative research in general and economics more specifically, are as a rule met with disapproval. Although people seem to get very agitated and upset by the critique — just read the commentaries on this blog if you don’t believe me — defenders of...

Lissabon, Berlin (dpo) – Große Verwirrung im Willy-Brandt-Haus! Nachdem der portugiesische Ministerpräsident António Costa bei der Parlamentswahl in Portugal große Stimmenzuwächse vermelden konnte, zeigt sich die Parteispitze der SPD (aktuelle Umfragen: 13-15%) verblüfft. Der Grund: Die sozialdemokratische Partei PS holte ausgerechnet mit klassisch sozialdemokratischer Politik 36,65 Prozent der Stimmen (2015: 32,31%). “Hä? Irgendetwas stimmt hier ganz und gar nicht!”, stottert...

Through shadows falling out of memory and time [embedded content] In memory of Kristina — beloved wife and mother of David and Tora. Hope fades Into the world of night Through shadows falling Out of memory and time Don’t say We have come now to the end White shores are calling You and I will meet again And you’ll be here in my arms

Knut Wicksell’s principle of just taxation My claim is that the very concept of taxation presupposes that all incomes are equally justified. This applies no matter which principle of taxation one wishes to put into practice. A tax that only reduces by a certain amount what a person unjustly possesses cannot be regarded as an appropriate compensation on his part for the efforts the state has made on his behalf, nor can it be seen as a sacrifice comparable...

Die Zeit 40/2019

La baisse des taux d’intérêt La politique monétaire des pays de l’OCDE est devenue très expansionniste depuis la crise de 2008-2009. Les taux d’intérêt des banques centrales ont beaucoup baissé (2,25 % aux Etats-Unis aujourd’hui, 0 % dans la zone euro et au Japon) … Pourtant, on ne voit pas d’effets très positifs de cette politique monétaire extraordinairement expansionniste. La croissance est en train de ralentir ; le taux d’investissement des entreprises...

Die Ärmsten werden immer ärmer Wieder stellt eine Untersuchung fest, dass die Ungleichheit bei den Einkommen in Deutschland gewachsen ist. Nach Angaben des Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftlichen Instituts (WSI) der gewerkschaftsnahen Hans-Böckler-Stiftung hat diese Unwucht einen neuen Höchststand erreicht – obwohl in den vergangenen Jahren die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt so gut wie nie war und sich auch die Konjunktur sehr lange gut entwickelte. So stellt...

‘Goodness of fit’ is not what social science is about Which independent variables should be included in the equation? The goal is a “good fit” … How can a good fit be recognized? A popular measure for the satisfactoriness of a regression is the coefficient of determination, R2. If this number is large, it is said, the regression gives a good fit … Nothing about R2 supports these claims. This statistic is best regarded as characterizing the geometric shape...