Lars P. Syll

Unbiased estimates? Forget it! In realistic settings, unbiased estimates simply don’t exist. In the real world we have nonrandom samples, measurement error, nonadditivity, nonlinearity, etc etc etc. So forget about it. We’re living in the real world … It’s my impression that many practitioners in applied econometrics and statistics think of their estimation choice kinda like this: 1. The unbiased estimate. It’s the safe choice, maybe a bit boring and maybe...

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The real value of analogue economies Modelling by the construction of analogue economies is a widespread technique in economic theory nowadays … As Lucas urges, the important point about analogue economies is that everything is known about them … and within them the propositions we are interested in ‘can be formulated rigorously and shown to be valid’ … For these constructed economies, our views about what will happen are ‘statements of verifiable fact.’...

Probability vs Maximum Likelihood (student stuff) [embedded content] .[embedded content] Advertisements

On manipulability and causation If contributions made by statisticians to the understanding of causation are to be taken over with advantage in any specific field of inquiry, then what is crucial is that the right relationship should exist between statistical and subject-matter concerns …The idea of causation as consequential manipulation is apt to research that can be undertaken primarily through experimental methods and, especially to ‘practical science’...

Social ekonomi — den tredje vägen Verksamheter inom den sociala ekonomin har allmännytta och/eller medlemsnytta, inte vinstintresse som drivkraft.  Förskolor, fritidshem, fritidsgårdar, hemtjänst, äldreboenden, biblioteksfilialer, anläggningar inom kultur- och fritidsområdet är exempel på verksamheter som kan drivas av stiftelser, ideella föreningar eller ekonomiska föreningar … Kunskapen om den sociala ekonomin och dess betydelse för samhällets utveckling...

Why most published research is wrong [embedded content] After having mastered all the technicalities of regression analysis and econometrics, students often feel as though they are the masters of the universe. I usually cool them down with a required reading of Christopher Achen‘s modern classic Interpreting and Using Regression. It usually get them back on track again, and they understand that no increase in methodological sophistication … alter the...

The first thing to understand about macroeconomic theory is that it is weirder than you think. The heart of it is the idea that the economy can be thought of as a single infinite-lived individual trading off leisure and consumption over all future time … This approach is formalized in something called the Euler equation … Some version of this equation is the basis of most articles on macroeconomic theory published in a mainstream journal in the past 30 years … The models may...

Far fuori il mito del NAIRU Anche se è diventata una credenza diffusa, la presunta relazione tra la disoccupazione e l’aumento o la riduzione dei tassi d’inflazione si stava sgretolando, in particolar modo negli anni ’90 del Novecento. Nel 2000 la disoccupazione era scesa al di sotto del 4% senza che l’inflazione decollasse. Dall’inizio della Grande Recessione, il divario tra la teoria e la realtà non ha fatto altro che ampliarsi… Una volta che ci si rende...

Magic at Malmö Live Yours truly visited Malmö Live yesterday. Jan Lundgren Trio with friends gave us all a memorable evening.  [embedded content][embedded content] Advertisements