Lars P. Syll

 [embedded content] Advertisements

Chicago economics delirium VSOP Macroeconomics was born as a distinct field in the 1940s (sic!), as a part of the intellectual response to the Great Depression. The term then referred to the body of knowledge and expertise that we hoped would prevent the recurrence of that economic disaster. My thesis in this lecture is that macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded: Its central problem of depression-prevention has been solved, for all practical...

I believe there is no other proposition in economics which has more solid empirical evidence supporting it than the Efficient Market Hypothesis. That hypothesis has been tested and, with very few exceptions, found consistent with the data in a wide variety of markets … Michael Jensen I am skeptical about the argument that the subprime mortgage problem will contaminate the whole mortgage market, that housing construction will come to a halt, and that the economy will slip into...

La discipline économique et le mirage de la ‘vraie science’ Le mirage de la « vraie science », dont la puissance fantasmatique est immense chez les économistes, met sur la voie d’une autre catégorie canguilhemienne, qui permet peut-être de donner sa qualification la plus précise à la situation épistémologique de l’économie : il s’agit de la catégorie « d’idéologie scientifique » … La catégorie d’idéologie scientifique est d’abord purement interne au...

Richard Thaler et les fausses mouches imprimées Richard Thaler … part de l’idée que si les individus sont incapables pour tout un tas de «biais cognitifs» et culturels de prendre les meilleures décisions, il faut les y aider en les accompagnant dans leurs choix de «tous les jours». D’où son idée d’imposer aux individus des décisions tout en leur faisant croire qu’ils conservent leur pleine liberté de choix. Son application la plus connue citée dans...

 [embedded content] Advertisements

Swedish housing bubble soon to burst High and rising household indebtedness poses the greatest risk to the Swedish economy. Household indebtedness has been increasing in Sweden since the mid- 1990s. Home ownership financed by high levels of mortgage debt with variable interest rates makes households vulnerable to falling house prices and increasing interest rates … In the present Economic Commentary, we extend the earlier analysis by using updated data...

Emma Frans och konsten att skilja vetenskap från trams Emma Frans’ med rätta prisbelönta bok Larmrapporten är en rolig, kunnig och ack så nödvändig uppgörelse med allehanda pseudo-vetenskapligt trams som sköljer över oss i media nuförtiden. Inte minst i sociala media sprids en massa ‘alternativa fakta’ och nonsens. Även om jag varmt rekommederat studenter, vänner och bekanta att läsa boken, kan jag dock inte låta bli att här — bland mestadels akademiskt...

Randomization — a philosophical device gone astray When giving courses in the philosophy of science yours truly has often had David Papineau’s book Philosophical Devices (OUP 2012) on the reading list. Overall it is a good introduction to many of the instruments used when performing methodological and science theoretical analyses of economic and other social sciences issues. Unfortunately, the book has also fallen prey to the randomization hype that...

Top 10 RCT critiques •Basu, Kaushik (2014) Randomisation, Causality and the Role of Reasoned Intuition •Cartwright, Nancy  (2010) What are randomised controlled trials good for? •Cartwright, Nancy & Hardie, Jeremy (2012) Evidence-Based Policy: A Practical Guide to Doing It Better •Deaton, Angus (2009 ) Instruments of development: Randomization in the tropics, and the search for the elusive keys to economic development •Deaton, Angus &...