Lars P. Syll

DSGE models — overconfident macroeconomic story-telling A recent paper by Christiano, Eichenbaum and Trabandt (C.E.T.) on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGEs) has generated quite a reaction in the blogosphere … Bradford Delong points out that new Keynesian models were constructed to show that old Keynesian and old Monetarist policy conclusions were relatively robust, and not blown out of the water by rational expectations … The DSGE...

Efter att ha följt nationalekonomiprofessorn John Hasslers analys av vårbudgeten på SvT Forum tidigare idag, slog det mig att jag nog hört det här förut … [embedded content] Advertisements

Shortcomings of regression analysis Distinguished social psychologist Richard E. Nisbett has a somewhat atypical aversion to multiple regression analysis. In his Intelligence and How to Get It (Norton 2011) he writes: Researchers often determine the individual’s contemporary IQ or IQ earlier in life, socioeconomic status of the family of origin, living circumstances when the individual was a child, number of siblings, whether the family had a library card,...

 [embedded content] Advertisements

Model builders face a constant temptation to make things more complicated than necessary because this makes them appear more capable than they really are. Remember that a model is not the truth. It is a lie to help you get your point across. And in the case of modeling economic risk, your model is a lie about others, who are probably lying themselves. And what’s worse than a simple lie? A complicated lie. Advertisements...

 [embedded content] Advertisements

The Swedish Academy. Founded in 1786. Dead in 2018. Advertisements

The wisdom of crowds  [embedded content] A classic demonstration of group intelligence is the jelly-beans-in-the-jar experiment, in which invariably the group’s estimate is superior to the vast majority of the individual guesses. When finance professor Jack Treynor ran the experiment in his class with a jar that held 850 beans, the group estimate was 871. Only one of the fifty-six people in the class made a better guess. There are two lessons to draw from...

Jean-Claude Arnault und die Schwedische Akademie Nach Missbrauchsvorwürfen gegen den Leiter eines Stockholmer Kulturzentrums ist die Vorsitzende der Schwedischen Akademie, Sara Danius, zurückgetreten. Sie lege auf Wunsch der Akademie ihr Amt mit sofortiger Wirkung nieder, teilte Danius mit. Die renommierte Akademie, die sie leitete, entscheidet jedes Jahr über die Vergabe des Literaturnobelpreises. Aus Protest gegen die Missbrauchsfälle hatten vier...

Margaret Thatcher väckte med sin nyliberala politik upprörda känslor. I radions P1 (kl. 21.03) diskuterar yours truly och Gunnela Björk järnladyn och hennes intellektuella och politiska arv. Här kan du lyssna på programmet i sin helhet redan nu. Advertisements