Lars P. Syll

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Mein junger Sohn fragt mich: Soll ich Mathematik lernen? Wozu? möchte ich fragen. Daß zwei Stück Brot mehr ist als eines: Das wirst Du auch so merken! Mein junger Sohn fragt mich: Soll ich Englisch lernen? Wozu? möchte ich fragen. Dieses Reicht geht unter und reibe Du nur mit der flachen Hand den Bauch und stöhne und man wird Dich schon verstehen. Mein junger Sohn fragt mich: Soll ich Geschichte lernen? Wozu? möchte ich fragen. Lerne nur Deinen Kopf in die Erde zu stecken,...

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Why game theory will be nothing but a footnote in the history of social science Nash equilibrium has since it was introduced back in the 50’s come to be the standard solution concept used by game theorists. The justification for its use has mainly built on dubious and contentious assumptions like ‘common knowledge’ and individuals exclusively identified as instrumentally rational. And as if that wasn’t enough, one actually, to ‘save’ the Holy Equilibrium...

Rational expectations — the triumph of ideology over science Research shows not only that individuals sometimes act differently than standard economic theories predict, but that they do so regularly, systematically, and in ways that can be understood and interpreted through alternative hypotheses, competing with those utilised by orthodox economists. To most market participants — and, indeed, ordinary observers — this does not seem like big news … In fact,...

[embedded content] In loving memory of Kristina — beloved wife and mother of David and Tora. div{float:left;margin-right:10px;} div.wpmrec2x div.u > div:nth-child(3n){margin-right:0px;} ]]> Advertisements

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To understand real world ‘non-routine’ decisions and unforeseeable changes in behaviour, ergodic probability distributions are of no avail. In a world full of genuine uncertainty — where real historical time rules the roost — the probabilities that ruled the past are not necessarily those that will rule the future. When we cannot accept that the observations, along the time-series available to us, are independent … we have, in strict logic, no more than one observation, all of...

Time to abandon statistical significance We recommend dropping the NHST [null hypothesis significance testing] paradigm — and the p-value thresholds associated with it — as the default statistical paradigm for research, publication, and discovery in the biomedical and social sciences. Specifically, rather than allowing statistical signicance as determined by p < 0.05 (or some other statistical threshold) to serve as a lexicographic decision rule in...

As we all know, neoliberalism is nothing but a self-serving con endorsing pernicious moral cynicism. But it’s still sickening to read its gobsmacking trash, maintaining that unregulated capitalism is a ‘superlatively moral system’: The rich man may feast on caviar and champagne, while the poor woman starves at his gate. And she may not even take the crumbs from his table, if that would deprive him of his pleasure in feeding them to his birds.   David Gauthier Morals by...