Lars P. Syll

Does economics — really — need models? A common idea among mainstream — neoclassical — economists is the idea of science advancing through the use of ‘as if’  modeling assumptions and ‘successive approximations’. But is this really a feasible methodology? I think not. Most models in science are representations of something else. Models ‘stand for’ or ‘depict’ specific parts of a ‘target system’ (usually the real world).  All theories and models have to use...

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Some unsettled questions in macroeconomic theory  [embedded content]

What is mainstream economics? The reason you study an issue at all is usually that you care about it, that there’s something you want to achieve or see happen. Motivation is always there; the trick is to do all you can to avoid motivated reasoning that validates what you want to hear. In my experience, modeling is a helpful tool (among others) in avoiding that trap, in being self-aware when you’re starting to let your desired conclusions dictate your...

Econometrics and the rabbits principle In econometrics one often gets the feeling that many of its practitioners think of it as a kind of automatic inferential machine: input data and out comes causal knowledge. This is like pulling a rabbit from a hat. Great — but first you have to put the rabbit in the hat. And this is where assumptions come in to the picture. The assumption of imaginary ‘superpopulations’ is one of the many dubious assumptions used in...

Economics — the triumph of ideology over science Research shows not only that individuals sometimes act differently than standard economic theories predict, but that they do so regularly, systematically, and in ways that can be understood and interpreted through alternative hypotheses, competing with those utilised by orthodox economists. To most market participants – and, indeed, ordinary observers – this does not seem like big news … In fact, this...

Economics — non-ideological and valuefree? I’ll be dipped! I’ve subsequently stayed away from the minimum wage literature for a number of reasons. First, it cost me a lot of friends. People that I had known for many years, for instance, some of the ones I met at my first job at the University of Chicago, became very angry or disappointed. They thought that in publishing our work we were being traitors to the cause of economics as a whole. David Card Back...

What is truth in economics? In my view, scientific theories are not to be considered ‘true’ or ‘false.’ In constructing such a theory, we are not trying to get at the truth, or even to approximate to it: rather, we are trying to organize our thoughts and observations in a useful manner. Robert Aumann What a handy view of science. How reassuring for all of you who have always thought that believing in the tooth fairy make you understand what happens to...

The perils of calling your pet cat a dog … Since econometrics doesn’t content itself with only making optimal predictions, but also aspires to explain things in terms of causes and effects, econometricians need loads of assumptions — most important of these are additivity and linearity. Important, simply because if they are not true, your model is invalid and descriptively incorrect.  And when the model is wrong — well, then it’s wrong. The assumption of...

Svensk universitetsutbildning i fritt fall (II) Jag sprang nyligen på en sammanställning av genusdoktorsavhandlingar från 2014. Många godbitar. Men en av dem var särskilt anmärkningsvärd, nämligen nummer 19 i uppräkningen. Det handlar om doktorsavhandlingen “Rum, rytm och resande” från Linköpings universitet (pdf). Sammanställningen sammanfattar: “Avhandlingen undersöker järnvägstationer som fysiska platser och sociala rum ur könsperspektiv. Kimstad...