Summary:
On credibility and causality in economics ‘Ideally controlled experiments’ tell us with certainty what causes what effects — but only given the right closures. Making appropriate extrapolations from (ideal, accidental, natural or quasi) experiments to different settings, populations or target systems, is not easy. ‘It works there’ is no evidence for ‘it will work here.’ Causes deduced in an experimental setting still have to show that they come with a transportability warrant to the target population. The causal background assumptions made have to be justified, and without licenses to transport, the value of ‘rigorous’ and ‘precise’ methods — and ‘on-average-knowledge’ — is often despairingly small. Without credible background assumptions, the value
Topics:
Lars Pålsson Syll considers the following as important: Economics
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On credibility and causality in economics ‘Ideally controlled experiments’ tell us with certainty what causes what effects — but only given the right closures. Making appropriate extrapolations from (ideal, accidental, natural or quasi) experiments to different settings, populations or target systems, is not easy. ‘It works there’ is no evidence for ‘it will work here.’ Causes deduced in an experimental setting still have to show that they come with a transportability warrant to the target population. The causal background assumptions made have to be justified, and without licenses to transport, the value of ‘rigorous’ and ‘precise’ methods — and ‘on-average-knowledge’ — is often despairingly small. Without credible background assumptions, the value
Topics:
Lars Pålsson Syll considers the following as important: Economics
This could be interesting, too:
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