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Home / Mike Norman Economics / Abandon Statistical Significance — Blakeley B. McShane, David Gal, Andrew Gelman, Christian Robert, and Jennifer L. Tacket

Abandon Statistical Significance — Blakeley B. McShane, David Gal, Andrew Gelman, Christian Robert, and Jennifer L. Tacket

Summary:
AbstractIn science publishing and many areas of research, the status quo is a lexicographic decision rule in which any result is first required to have a p-value that surpasses the 0.05 threshold and only then is consideration—often scant—given to such factors as prior and related evidence, plausibility of mechanism, study design and data quality, real world costs and benefits, novelty of finding, and other factors that vary by research domain. There have been recent proposals to change the p-value threshold, but instead we recommend abandoning the null hypothesis significance testing paradigm entirely, leaving p-values as just one of many pieces of information with no privileged role in scientific publication and decision making. We argue that this radical approach is both practical and

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Abstract

In science publishing and many areas of research, the status quo is a lexicographic decision rule in which any result is first required to have a p-value that surpasses the 0.05 threshold and only then is consideration—often scant—given to such factors as prior and related evidence, plausibility of mechanism, study design and data quality, real world costs and benefits, novelty of finding, and other factors that vary by research domain. There have been recent proposals to change the p-value threshold, but instead we recommend abandoning the null hypothesis significance testing paradigm entirely, leaving p-values as just one of many pieces of information with no privileged role in scientific publication and decision making. We argue that this radical approach is both practical and sensible.
Uncritically adopting universal rules and criteria is a sign of lazy thinking and likely ideological thinking aka dogmatism as well.

This move would overturn the existing scientific publishing model, it is unlikely to happen without considerable opposition. This model is key in establishing reputational credibility and advancement in the profession. Players like set rules. This is especially true in formal subjects, where training focuses on producing "the right answer" based on customary application of formal methods. The downside is group think and imposition of a consensus reality.

Abandon Statistical Significance

Blakeley B. McShane, David Gal, Andrew Gelman, Christian Robert, and Jennifer L. Tackett
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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