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Ramanan — The Burden Of Adjustment And Keynes’ Solution

Summary:
Argentina had a balance-of-payments crisis recently and required help. The IMF has agreed for a stand-by arrangement of billion on the condition in the IMF’s own words: “At the core of the government’s economic plan is a rebalancing of the fiscal position. We fully support this priority and welcome the authorities’ intention to accelerate the pace at which they reduce the federal government’s deficit, restoring the primary balance by 2020. This measure will ultimately lessen the government financing needs, put public debt on a downward trajectory, and as President Macri has stated, relieve a burden from Argentina’s back. So Argentina has to agree on policies with deflationary bias to its output. John Maynard Keynes made this observation, had a completely different attitude than the

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Argentina had a balance-of-payments crisis recently and required help. The IMF has agreed for a stand-by arrangement of $50 billion on the condition in the IMF’s own words:
“At the core of the government’s economic plan is a rebalancing of the fiscal position. We fully support this priority and welcome the authorities’ intention to accelerate the pace at which they reduce the federal government’s deficit, restoring the primary balance by 2020. This measure will ultimately lessen the government financing needs, put public debt on a downward trajectory, and as President Macri has stated, relieve a burden from Argentina’s back.
So Argentina has to agree on policies with deflationary bias to its output. John Maynard Keynes made this observation, had a completely different attitude than the IMF and proposed to change it. From The Collected Writings Of John Maynard Keynes, Volume XXV: Shaping The Post-War World: The Clearing Union, Chapter 1, The Origins Of The Clearing Union, 1940-1942, pages 27-30:
The solution that Keynes proposed was in terms of the monetary system current then. That is no longer the case, but the principle remains the same.
Of course we are past the Bretton Woods system and have a system of a mix of fixed and floating exchange rates but it hasn’t provided the market mechanism required to resolve imbalances. The adjustment is still on output and employment. Hence the need for an official mechanism to resolve imbalances. Bancor isn’t relevant now, but official intervention is.
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The Burden Of Adjustment And Keynes’ Solution
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Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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