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Summary of Grantham's guesses (described "absolutely my personal views")A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e., over 50%. If there is a melt-up, then the odds of a subsequent bubble break or melt-down are very, very high, i.e., over 90%. If there is a market decline following a melt-up, it is quite likely to be a decline of some 50%. If such a decline takes place, I believe the market is very likely (over 2:1) to bounce back up way over the pre 1998 level of 15x, but likely a bit below the average trend of the last 20 years, as the trend slowly works its way back toward the old normal on my “Not with a Bang but a Whimper” flight path. Interesting tidbit. Recently an academic paper titled “Bubbles for Fama” concluded that in the US and
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Mike Norman considers the following as important: asset valuation, bubbles, equity markets, financial forecast, Jeremy Grantham, US economy
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Summary of Grantham's guesses (described "absolutely my personal views")A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e., over 50%. If there is a melt-up, then the odds of a subsequent bubble break or melt-down are very, very high, i.e., over 90%. If there is a market decline following a melt-up, it is quite likely to be a decline of some 50%. If such a decline takes place, I believe the market is very likely (over 2:1) to bounce back up way over the pre 1998 level of 15x, but likely a bit below the average trend of the last 20 years, as the trend slowly works its way back toward the old normal on my “Not with a Bang but a Whimper” flight path. Interesting tidbit. Recently an academic paper titled “Bubbles for Fama” concluded that in the US and
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: asset valuation, bubbles, equity markets, financial forecast, Jeremy Grantham, US economy
This could be interesting, too:
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Summary of Grantham's guesses (described "absolutely my personal views")Interesting tidbit.
- A melt-up or end-phase of a bubble within the next 6 months to 2 years is likely, i.e., over 50%.
- If there is a melt-up, then the odds of a subsequent bubble break or melt-down are very, very high, i.e., over 90%.
- If there is a market decline following a melt-up, it is quite likely to be a decline of some 50%.
- If such a decline takes place, I believe the market is very likely (over 2:1) to bounce back up way over the pre 1998 level of 15x, but likely a bit below the average trend of the last 20 years, as the trend slowly works its way back toward the old normal on my “Not with a Bang but a Whimper” flight path.
Recently an academic paper titled “Bubbles for Fama” concluded that in the US and almost all global markets, the strongest indicator – stronger than pure pricing or value – was indeed price acceleration.Zero Hedge
Jeremy Grantham Warns: "Brace Yourself For A Near-Term Melt Up"
Tyler Durden