by Summary:
We are in the middle of a bear market for risk assets, and the key question is trying to figure out what turns this around. My argument is that it is going to be very difficult to read the entrails of market chart patterns, pandemic data, and policy responses to time the bottom. However, if one is not attempting to be a hero forecaster, one key thing to look for is a the resumption in corporate bond issuance. (This is the primary credit market; the secondary market is trading of existing bonds among investors. Pretty much all market data and colour is based on the secondary market.) My feeling is that policy makers are either going in the right direction (or are being dragged by the private sector), so policy uncertainty is becoming less of an issue. Instead, we are stuck more with the
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: coronavirus
This could be interesting, too:
We are in the middle of a bear market for risk assets, and the key question is trying to figure out what turns this around. My argument is that it is going to be very difficult to read the entrails of market chart patterns, pandemic data, and policy responses to time the bottom. However, if one is not attempting to be a hero forecaster, one key thing to look for is a the resumption in corporate bond issuance. (This is the primary credit market; the secondary market is trading of existing bonds among investors. Pretty much all market data and colour is based on the secondary market.) My feeling is that policy makers are either going in the right direction (or are being dragged by the private sector), so policy uncertainty is becoming less of an issue. Instead, we are stuck more with the
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: coronavirus
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes Coronavirus update through October 30, 2023
NewDealdemocrat writes Coronavirus update: the virus is back; everyone should return to their prior precautions and get boosted this fall
NewDealdemocrat writes BA.2 likely only causes a ripple
NewDealdemocrat writes Pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for the winter wave
We are in the middle of a bear market for risk assets, and the key question is trying to figure out what turns this around. My argument is that it is going to be very difficult to read the entrails of market chart patterns, pandemic data, and policy responses to time the bottom. However, if one is not attempting to be a hero forecaster, one key thing to look for is a the resumption in corporate bond issuance. (This is the primary credit market; the secondary market is trading of existing bonds among investors. Pretty much all market data and colour is based on the secondary market.) My feeling is that policy makers are either going in the right direction (or are being dragged by the private sector), so policy uncertainty is becoming less of an issue. Instead, we are stuck more with the hard scientific question as to the effectiveness of social distancing, as well as medical treatments....Bond Economics
Primary Credit Market Is Key
Brian Romanchuk