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First Wave Of Disastrous Real Economy Data — Brian Romanchuk

Summary:
Brian doesn't mention it here, but an implication is with meeting obligations going forward — servicing private debt, both business and household, and meeting the monthly nut for most ordinary folks. The latter is concerning considering the level of precarity. A lot of people will find it challenging to make the rent, for example. This is of concern not only to them but to landlords that are leveraged, as well as their lenders. Obligations were undertaken based on the old normal. and it is looking like the new normal will be different, perhaps considerably. The good news is that fiscal support is much much higher than in meeting the 2008 GFC and aftermath. This will soften the blow, but there is still a lot of uncertainty.  For example, the absolute size of the deficit is one

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Brian doesn't mention it here, but an implication is with meeting obligations going forward — servicing private debt, both business and household, and meeting the monthly nut for most ordinary folks. The latter is concerning considering the level of precarity. A lot of people will find it challenging to make the rent, for example. This is of concern not only to them but to landlords that are leveraged, as well as their lenders.

Obligations were undertaken based on the old normal. and it is looking like the new normal will be different, perhaps considerably.

The good news is that fiscal support is much much higher than in meeting the 2008 GFC and aftermath. This will soften the blow, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. 

For example, the absolute size of the deficit is one matter and its relative distribution is another. Are the funds flowing were most needed? 

Apparently, the distribution dwindles on the way down, repeating an issue that was apparent in the aftermath of the 2008 GFC when the financial and industrial sectors were bailed out but workers left hanging out to dry.

Bond Economics
First Wave Of Disastrous Real Economy Data
Brian Romanchuk

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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