by Back in April, the Atlanta Fed's first GDP forecast for Q2 was 4.2%. I said that was ridiculous based on the year-over-year drop in net government transfers. I said they would have to revise that lower, probably equal to Q1 GDP of 1.6% if that. And sure enough, they did...FIVE TIMES, until they got it down to 1.5%-1.6%.Then, because of one strong retail sales report in May, they boosted it back up to 3.2%. Once again, I said they'd have to bring that down because the year-over-year drop in net government transfers had gotten worse. And sure enough, they did. Now they have it at 2.1%, which probably has to decrease even more.I don't know what their model is, but mine is very simple, more accurate, and timely. Net government transfers are the first derivative of all economic activity.
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: Atlanta Fed, GDP, GDPNow, Q2 2024 GDP
This could be interesting, too:
NewDealdemocrat writes Real GDP for Q3 nicely positive, but long leading components mediocre to negative for the second quarter in a row
Frances Coppola writes Why the Tories’ “put people to work” growth strategy has failed
Angry Bear writes First Quarter GDP Growth at 1.6 Percent
Frances Coppola writes The tragedy of Gaza
Back in April, the Atlanta Fed's first GDP forecast for Q2 was 4.2%. I said that was ridiculous based on the year-over-year drop in net government transfers. I said they would have to revise that lower, probably equal to Q1 GDP of 1.6% if that. And sure enough, they did...FIVE TIMES, until they got it down to 1.5%-1.6%.
Then, because of one strong retail sales report in May, they boosted it back up to 3.2%. Once again, I said they'd have to bring that down because the year-over-year drop in net government transfers had gotten worse. And sure enough, they did. Now they have it at 2.1%, which probably has to decrease even more.
I don't know what their model is, but mine is very simple, more accurate, and timely. Net government transfers are the first derivative of all economic activity.