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Bank loans and macro analysis

Summary:
Bank lending began to decelerate after oil related capital spending collapsed late in 2014, and then collapsed further about the time of the presidential election: Note the consumer ‘dipping into savings’ some to sustain consumption via borrowing into year end as personal income flattened: Real disposable personal income flattened and consumer spending slowed but not as much as income, and was instead supported by consumers ‘dipping into savings’: This is now impossibly low, given the deceleration in credit: Employment gains continue to decelerate: Total vehicle sales were lower in 2017 vs 2016, with domestic autos particularly weak. This is through November: Slowing growth here as well: With income and employment decelerating I can’t see the upside?

Topics:
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WARREN MOSLER writes Housing index, Saudi oil pricing charts

WARREN MOSLER writes Industrial production, China retail sales, Miles driven, Federal interest payments, Budget charts

WARREN MOSLER writes Jobless claims, Retail sales, Bank lending, Fed comments

WARREN MOSLER writes Trade, Consumer credit

Bank lending began to decelerate after oil related capital spending collapsed late in 2014, and then collapsed further about the time of the presidential election:

Bank loans and macro analysis

Bank loans and macro analysis

Bank loans and macro analysis

Bank loans and macro analysis

Note the consumer ‘dipping into savings’ some to sustain consumption via borrowing into year end as personal income flattened:

Bank loans and macro analysis

Bank loans and macro analysis

Real disposable personal income flattened and consumer spending slowed but not as much as income, and was instead supported by consumers ‘dipping into savings’:

Bank loans and macro analysis

Bank loans and macro analysis

This is now impossibly low, given the deceleration in credit:

Bank loans and macro analysis
Employment gains continue to decelerate:

Bank loans and macro analysis
Total vehicle sales were lower in 2017 vs 2016, with domestic autos particularly weak. This is through November:

Bank loans and macro analysis
Slowing growth here as well:

Bank loans and macro analysis

With income and employment decelerating I can’t see the upside?

WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

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