Tag Archives: Economic Releases

Tariffs have caused a global economy (that has a pro cyclical bias) to turn south. It’s always an unspent income story. When decisions to not spend income (decisions to ‘save’) are not sufficiently ‘offset’ by agents spending more than their incomes GDP (sales/income) decelerates until said deficit spending- private or public- expands to fill the gap.

Heading south: Sales in contraction year over year and inventories again elevated: Highlights Wholesale inventories rose 0.2 percent in August which is down from an initial estimate of 0.4 percent posted late last month. Inventories in July rose 0.2 percent. Sales at the wholesale level are subdued, unchanged in August to keep the stock-to-sales ratio in the sector unchanged at 1.36. For GDP, wholesale inventories in the first two months of the third quarter rose roughly in...

Highlights Small business optimism continues to ease, down 1.3 points in September to a slightly lower-than-expected 101.8. No components rose in the month with six down and three unchanged. The report notes that uncertainty is up and respondents are more reluctant to make major spending commitments. Tariffs are cited by 30 percent of the sample as a negative for their business. Labor compensation continues to rise in contrast, however, to selling prices which are...

Weakness continues and new tariffs kicking in will only make it worse: Highlights Is there slack in the labor market or isn’t there? Judging by September’s 3.5 percent unemployment rate, a rate that falls below Econoday’s consensus range, there may not be much available capacity at all. Yet wage pressures, as measured by average hourly earnings, eased significantly in September for a 2.9 percent year-on-year growth rate that is the lowest since July last year. Payroll growth...

The service sector is in full retreat: Contraction: Trump says China should investigate the Bidens, doubles down on Ukraine probe

Rapid deceleration: BEA: September Vehicles Sales increased to 17.2 Million SAAR “The job market has shown signs of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The average monthly job growth for the past three months is 145,000, down from 214,000 for the same time period last year.” Negative year over year: BEA: September Vehicles Sales increased to 17.2 Million SAAR BEA released their estimate of September vehicle sales...

The deceleration that’s been going on all year due to the tariffs seems to finally be getting some media attention after US manufacturing reports that it’s in contraction. Something like the 10th plague… Highlights Contraction in export orders is severe and is pulling composite activity for ISM manufacturing’s sample under water. September’s 47.8 headline is more than 1 point under Econoday’s consensus which is significant, since nearly all forecasters take a stab at this...

Just a partial recap of today’s releases as the tariff induced global trade collapse continues:

Been contracting all year: Contraction:

Still contracting: This indicator is flashing recession again. Last time this happened a few years ago the numbers were subsequently revised higher: Not a good sign: Lending to house flippers hits a 13-year high as prices and competition heat up