Wednesday , January 29 2020
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Employment, Wholesale inventories and sales

Summary:
Still in a down draft with additional tariffs scheduled to kick in Dec 15. Decelerating employment growth translates into decelerating personal income growth, etc. etc. etc. Similar pattern for wages- up some with tax cuts, down with tariffs: Meanwhile seems the crowd is making a big deal over the larger than expected headline number of data that’s both volatile and subject to large revisions: The 266,000 jobs added in November is an important number since it defies expectations, at least for one month, that the labor market is slowing down. The report was way better than the 187,000 jobs expected by economists. The end of the GM strike helped inflate the number, with 41,300 jobs added in motor vehicles and parts, but the overall gain in payrolls was still about

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WARREN MOSLER writes New Home Sales, Dallas Fed, Germany, Tech, Rails, Containers, Bank loans, Coronavirus

WARREN MOSLER writes Jobs, Vehicle sales, Housing starts, Industrial production

WARREN MOSLER writes NY manufacturing, Market cap concentration, Private equity

WARREN MOSLER writes Earnings, Small business index

Still in a down draft with additional tariffs scheduled to kick in Dec 15. Decelerating employment growth translates into decelerating personal income growth, etc. etc. etc.

Employment, Wholesale inventories and sales

Similar pattern for wages- up some with tax cuts, down with tariffs:

Employment, Wholesale inventories and sales

Meanwhile seems the crowd is making a big deal over the larger than expected headline number of data that’s both volatile and subject to large revisions:

The 266,000 jobs added in November is an important number since it defies expectations, at least for one month, that the labor market is slowing down. The report was way better than the 187,000 jobs expected by economists.

The end of the GM strike helped inflate the number, with 41,300 jobs added in motor vehicles and parts, but the overall gain in payrolls was still about 100,000 better than expected by many economists. Manufacturing gained 54,000 overall.

“The bottom line is the labor market is cooking. It clearly says the Fed should not do anything more. The Fed can now sit back on the shelf, not have to worry about having to be pestered about lower rates,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.

Wholesale inventories are too high and going the wrong direction as sales fail to keep pace and are now in contraction:

Employment, Wholesale inventories and sales

Employment, Wholesale inventories and sales

Employment, Wholesale inventories and sales

This recession could be worse than 08?
;)

Employment, Wholesale inventories and sales

WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

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