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Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment claims, comments

Summary:
This index is settling in to about a 3.5% annual rate of growth.No recession indication here: No recession here either: No sign of recession here: Markets are being driven by the understanding that the Fed will continue to raise rates until there is a recession, not realizing that rate increases, with debt/GDP as high as it is,result in a sufficiently large increase in government deficit spending on those interest payments to support both the growth of private sector total spending on goods and services as well as to support prices. So what happens each cycle is the Fed raises rates and supports growth until something else causes a recession. Recent history has seen the automatic stabilizers (tax receipts rising and transfer payments falling with growth) bring down gov

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This index is settling in to about a 3.5% annual rate of growth.
No recession indication here:

Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment claims, comments

No recession here either:

Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment claims, comments

No sign of recession here:

Industrial production, retail sales, unemployment claims, comments

Markets are being driven by the understanding that the Fed will continue to raise rates until there is a recession, not realizing that rate increases, with debt/GDP as high as it is,
result in a sufficiently large increase in government deficit spending on those interest payments to support both the growth of private sector total spending on goods and services as well as to support prices.
So what happens each cycle is the Fed raises rates and supports growth until something else causes a recession. Recent history has seen the automatic stabilizers (tax receipts rising and transfer payments falling with growth) bring down gov deficit spending sufficiently to end the cycle, while at the same time the Saudis have raised oil prices until the economy and demand collapses.
WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

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